What has Happened in Azerbaijan Since Karabakh Recovered Shows What Would Happen in Russia if Putin Wins in Ukraine, Baku Blogger Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 12 – Many Azerbaijanis expected that once their country recovered Karabakh, they would live better and more freely, a Baku blogger who uses the screen name “Gavrilo Princip says; but that has not happened, something that should be a warning to Russians who think that a Russian victory in Ukraine would leave them freer and better off.

            Instead, he suggests, the situation in Russia would likely deteriorate still further just as it has in Azerbaijan, something he implies Russians, Azerbaijanis and anyone else who may be tempted to accept the myths of “a short victorious war” should take into account in their evaluation of such a war and their own futures (doxa.team/articles/azerbaidzhan-after-war).

            According to Gavrilo Princip, “the processes in Russia and Azerbaijan are similar; and I both countries, victory in war does not mean freedom, peace or flourishing. On the contrary: Azerbaijan’s example shows that suggest may only intensify the cult of force, reduce the standard of living and lead to new military ambitions.”

            In sum, he argues, “aggression becomes the basis of the state’s ideology and affects society ever more strongly.” In Azerbaijan, “authoritarianism formed earlier than in Russia” but Putin like Aliyev built his power on repression, corruption and militarism.” Both are pursuing the same goals and are trapped in the same pattern.

            Aliyev’s military victory hasn’t brough the Azerbaijanis anything besides “an almost complete lack of freedoms, coffins with the dead, rising prices and a deterioration in the quality of life.” In short, Azerbaijan hasn’t gotten Karabakh back; instead, Aliyev has seized it for his own purposes and won’t change course.

“Since Aliyev has no other significant successes in 30 years in power, he continues to stir up imperialist, Armenophobic and militaristic sentiments. The conflict has become the basis of his rule, and impunity, support from Turkey and Russia, along with the indifference of the rest of the world, only whetting the appetite of the permanent president,” Gavril Princip says

Indeed, it now appears that “Azerbaijan will continue to become an increasingly closed and unfree country with a large army, a North Korea of the Caucasus” with its own family dynasty and that Russia will follow the same trajectory with negative consequences for Russians and the world.