Paul
Goble
Staunton, June 4 – Vladimir Putin’s
approach in Ukraine appears to be modelled on what he believes the West been
doing in Syria, an approach that he hopes to use as the basis of a swap between
Moscow and the G-7 but one that could transform what many in Russia continue to
call “the near abroad” into an unstable “Near East,” Nikolay Mitrokhin suggests.
In a Grani.ru article this week,
Mitrokhin points out that “the armed conflict in the Donbass no longer is a
clash between the central authorities of Ukraine and regional separatists. The level of involvement in it by the Russian
side is so great that many analysts now say Russia is conducting a new type of
war” (grani.ru/Politics/World/Europe/Ukraine/m.229890.html).
However
that may be, Mitrokhin continues, there is a related political question that
analysts and officials should be focusing on: Why is Moscow “so openly”
supporting “small groups of Russian citizens” who continue to attack “’the
fascists of Kyiv’” despite being in a situation where “sooner or later” they
will be defeated by the Ukrainian army?
The
Moscow analyst suggests that the answer to that may lie in how Moscow has been
behaving in “another place on the earth where now many are also shooting, where
a weak central government is also struggling with groups of militants who are
motivated by various things but who are united in their effort to remove the
illegitimate, in their view, head of the country.”
That
country, of course, is Syria, Mitrokhin continues. The Syrian case is “close to the Donbas by
virtue of the fact that in an internal conflict in a country with a complex mix
of population there are now involved various external forces,” with Russia and
Iran supporting the Asad regime and various countries or at least groups in
them backing the opposition.
That
parallel in turn suggests something else. “In the current Russian political
lexicon, the term “little answer” [“otvetka”] which comes from criminal jargon
and means a forcible response to certain actions or challenges by a competitor.”
Those
who use this term, he argues, see “Crimea, for example, as ‘a little answer’
for Kosovo,” and they qualify other Russian actions “which violate
international law” as “’little answers’ for Kosovo, Qaddafi, the ‘NATO bombing’
of Serbia and even for the collapse of the USSR.”
The
Kremlin is unhappy with what it believes the West is doing in Syria just as it
is “by any other attempt at overthrowing a dictator by a pro-Western
opposition. Consequently, Mitrokhin
says, “it is possible that [Putin et al.] hope to use the Donbass as the basis
for an exchange in the course of its global conflict with the West.”
Such
a possibility is suggested, he continues, by “Putin’s silence regarding the
election of Poroshenko” as president of Ukraine, a silence which suggests that “in
the eyes of the Russian authorities, the elected Ukrainian president is no more
legitimate than [Syria’s] Asad is in the eyes of the West.”
Moreover,
Mitrokhin notes, “the Orthodox terrorists and Chechen volunteers” ostensibly
fighting on their own in the Donbass are “partially the very same people who
already fought in Syria.” And the
announcement of plans by the US to provide military equipment to Ukraine is
likely to reinforce a Kremlin view that Ukraine and Syria are analogous.
An
invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces “still looks improbable,” the analyst
argues, “although such a threat (again by analogy with the actions of Western
countries in Syria) constantly hangs in the air, sometimes materialize in the
form of Russian drones.” Putin simply
wants the conflict to continue, until he can use it for his own geopolitical
goals.
“What price will Putin set for peace
making in Eastern Ukraine?” Mitrokhin says that he believes that the Kremlin
leader will propose to the West a “package” deal: Western recognition of Russia’s
annexation of Crimea and a non-bloc status for Ukraine and an end to “military
support for the anti-Asad opposition in Syria.”
The G-7 leaders are hardly like to
agree, the Moscow analyst continues, particularly because “the Ukrainian
government has begun to show some success in the military arena. But what this
means is that no one should expect news about peace in the Donbass anytime
soon.”
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