Paul
Goble
Staunton, July 2 –Nikolay Tsukanov,
the governor of Kaliningrad, says that people he suspects are Maidan activists
are arriving in his region alongside genuine refugees from Ukraine and that
they are being sent by Western “special services” to “unleash a Maidan” in that
Russian exclave and others as well.
According to
“Nezavisimaya gazeta” today, Russian experts disagree about Tsukhanov’s
statement. Some agree and say it reflects an attempt by the West to show Moscow
that it has separatist regions like those in southeastern Ukraine. Others say
it is either a demonstration of loyalty, a demand for more resources to deal
with this situation, or the basis for witch hunts against political opponents (ng.ru/politics/2014-07-02/1_maidan.html).
But
however that may be, declarations like that of the Kaliningrad governor will
further exacerbate negative attitudes among Russians towards Ukrainians in
general and Ukrainian refugees in particular and that in turn will make
Ukrainians even more negatively inclined toward Russia and Russians.
Without giving any sources, Tsukanov said that a
group of young single people had crossed into Kaliningrad from Poland and that
it “was no secret for anyone” that “Western special services are working to
unleash a Maidan in Kaliningrad,” suggesting that the second is true and implying
that the first is linked to it.
Aleksey Mukhin, head of the Moscow
Center for Political Information, says that what Tsukhanov is talking about is
at least plausible. The western border
of Ukraine is open “for people of an adventurist cast” of mind, and “potential
mercenaries who have fought in Iraq, Syria, and Libya” may be coming it.
But he continues, “it would be very
strange to accuse Western countries or Russia” as being behind them. Moreover,
Polish officials have denied that there are any mercenaries in their country.
An anonymous source in Russian law
enforcement, however, told the paper that Moscow has “information about the
death in Ukraine of some 40 Polish mercenaries.” He added that Russian security
services had information as well about the penetration of such people into
Kaliningrad and other Russian regions.
Russian expert Nikolay Petrov told
“Nezavisimaya gazeta” that he doubts that “anyone in the West at the
governmental level could send” agents into Russia to spark a Maidan, although
it is possible that those fighting for the rights of Ukrainians might. But he suggested that such statements were
more political acts to promote “the atmosphere of a besieged fortress.”
There may be a darker side to
this. According to Petrov, “if in the
near future, Russia weakens its support for the separatists in southeastern
Ukraine in a serious way, Putin could find himself in a very complicated
position.” Nationalists would attack him for betrayal, “and in this case,
countermoves are very much needed that would allow Putin to maintain his
popularity as a military leader.”
Moreover, Petrov says, because
many see the annexation of Crimea as a step toward the creation of “an ethnic
Russian state,” then “potentially there exists a risk of nationalism, not
Russian but anti-Russian” and hence of “separatism.” In such a state, “no one wants to be a
second-class individual.”
Boris
Makarenko of the Moscow Center for Political Technologies says that Tsukanov’s
suggestion is intended to provoke a witch hunt rather than to highlight a real
problem. That view is supported by a report by Kaliningrad regional migration
officials who say that fewer people have arrived there from Ukraine this year
than last.
Gleb
Pavlovsky, head of the Effective Politics Foundation, agrees, adding that he
thinks what governors are trying to do by making such declarations is to get
more money out of Moscow and to set the stage for moving against their own
political opponents. Tsukanov has many
more serious problems than “imaginary diversionists from Poland,” Pavlovsky
says.
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