Paul
Goble
Staunton, April 9 – The “Kavkazskaya
politika” portal has launched a new series of articles that pose the question
as to what “”a perfect storm’” that would overthrow the existing political
order in the North Caucasus might look like, whether such a whirlwind is
approaching, and how both regional elites and Moscow might be able to cope.
The first article which has just
appeared is by Denis Sokolov, a senior researcher at the Russian Academy of
Economics and State Service, who argues that increasing competition for land
will undermine official control because it shift the balance from the public
sector to the private sector and leave the public one with fewer resources to
buy off the population.
And that shift in turn is already
intensifying the concerns of many in the region that they face “a perfect storm,”
something that in the past allowed regional elites to consolidate their
position by playing on the fears of chaos but that now may be beyond their
capacity to cope (kavpolit.com/articles/kogda_sluchitsja_idealnyj_shtorm_popytka_prognozir-15712/).
For the past two decades, Sokolov
acknowledges, “apocalyptic predictions” about the impact of conflicts over land
have not proved to be true. Officials using various means have been able to “neutralize”
such conflicts and even to exploit them to build their own power. But that may be ending, the Moscow scholar
suggests.
As one of his friends has observed,
he continues, “there are two means of struggle with chaos: national liberal
democracy with human rights, an open market and accessible justice and empire
in which everything proceeds not according to law but by understandings, where
there is a secret police, where obscurantism is promoted, and where corruption
flourishes.”
The events in Ukraine over the last
year, Sokolov says, “show how complicated it is to build a state on the
remnants of an empire.” The risks of a breakdown into chaos and the fears of
that are great, and “there are no entirely positive examples” on the territory
of what was once the Soviet Union.
In Daghestan, he says, there is a
system which is best described by the Arabic word “’nizam.’” “This is not adat
or shariat; it is a system of unpublished rules which define who can speak at a
meeting and who should remain silent, who can be elected head, become an imam
or leader of a jamaat, and who cannot.”
Such rules have “several sources,”
Sokolov points out, including the stratification of Daghestani society going
back centuries and “the natural inequality which arises” with private
property. “The Most High has given us
equal rights, but has made us different,” the Moscow analyst continues.
If one translates “’nizam’” into “the
language of political anthropology, he says, then this is the collection of
rules “which supports stability in a society where two or more clanic grups
compete for rule.” It is “a universal order, arising out of necessity to “informally
distribute power and financial flows.”
Regional elites in the North
Caucasus and the Moscow bureaucracy “function not according to law but
according to ‘nizam,’” a system that “is everywhere different” but based on “a
single principle: with the aid of unwritten rules to strengthen the hierarchy
and avoid force and chaos.”
“’Nizam’” is thus the first step
away from chaos, one that does not require from those taking part in it a high
degree of social organization but effectively limits force, compensates for the
absence of justice, while at the same time “catastrophically limiting
competition.” That last is not only bad
news but ultimately can be the source of instability.
On the one hand, it means that
fighting corruption is a threat to the continuing operation of “’nizam.’” And
on the other, it limits the ability of the powers that be to maintain
themselves if economic situations change and they have fewer resources to offer
than do those who may be able to operate in the private sector.
As long
as officials have more money and other goods to distribute than the private
sector does, “the political system appears to be irreplaceable.” Almost
everyone is dependent on officials, Sokolov says, and “even leaders of the opposition
are appointed by the administration,” he suggests.
But
that situation isn’t in fact eternal, especially given that increasing
competition for what is “the chief resource” of the North Caucasus – land -- is
intensifying and the rewards of controlling it are becoming greater than those
the state which has relied on profits from oil and gas have to hand out.
Ever
more people in the North Caucasus see control of land as the best way to make a
profit for themselves, especially given the declining value of the ruble,
increasing demand for agricultural products, and the absence of other
investment opportunities, and officials themselves have intensified this
feeling with projects that require control over land as well.
At
present, “no free land remains,” and with population increasing, competition
over land and its repartition is growing, something likely to take on an ethnic
and regional dimension and thus call into question the current arrangements of “’nizam’”
and make chaos, at least in the short term, more likely, Sokolov concludes.
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