Paul
Goble
Staunton, December 8 – Moscow now
views the Internet as its primary propaganda channel in Estonia, Latvia and
Lithuania because that medium reaches the young whereas Russian-language
television to the extent that it has an impact at all affects primarily those
of pension age, according to Jacek Jan Komar.
On the one hand, this shift reflects
the fact that nearly a generation after the end of the Soviet power in the
Baltic countries, those who rely on Russian language television are passing
from the scene, while young people who prefer the Internet to television are
becoming an ever larger part of the population in all three.
And on the other, it highlights the
fact that Moscow has adopted a long-term strategy for increasing its influence in
the Baltic countries rather than seeking any quick propaganda victories, a
decision some may see as a victory for the Baltic governments but that others
will recognize as a more serious long-term threat.
In an interview with Belarus’ Charter
97 portal, Komar says that some Lithuanians are celebrating a Russian decision
to stop broadcasting a Russian-language news program as “a sign of Lithuania’s
victory in the Kremlin’s undeclared information war against the Baltic
countries.” But that is a mistake (charter97.org/ru/news/2015/12/8/181781/).
“In
fact,” he says, “the popularity of this program is already long in the past;
its main audience consisted of people of pension or immediately pre-pension
age.” The costs of producing such a
program were high, and the returns to Moscow quite low given that few younger
people ever watched it.
After
Moscow invaded Ukraine, it stepped up its propaganda efforts against the Baltic
countries, and the Baltic governments responded in a variety of ways – from creating
a Russian-language television program in Estonia to banning Russian television
channels in Lithuania. But in an important respect, they missed the point of
what Moscow is trying to do.
By
taking such steps, the Baltic governments provided Moscow with the opportunity
to claim, albeit without foundation, that the three were violating freedom of
speech. That is very much part of the Russian
information war against the Baltic states because Moscow in the very first
instance wants to present the three to the West as unreliable countries.
“The Kremlin is trying not to show that the
neighboring countries are taking a Russophobic position but that they have
still not matured to democracy, human rights and freedom of speech. Appealing to the West, Moscow is not shy of
accusing the Baltic countries of totalitarianism,” Komar says.
But
even more, he suggests, the Baltic focus on television has caused some in those
countries to ignore the dramatic increase in Moscow-sponsored activity on the
Internet, activity that is far cheaper for the Russians to engage in and far
more likely not only to reach the young but to spill over into the local
language segments of the net and thus have a greater influence.
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