Paul
Goble
Staunton, December 4 – In his speech
to the Russian parliament, Vladimir Putin outlined a vision for Russia’s future
as a major combatant in the Middle East and “a besieged fortress” at home for a
long time to come, but he also sent five key messages to Ukraine, according to Konstantin
Zelfanov.
The five messages (nr2.com.ua/News/world_and_russia/Pyat-glavnyh-vyvodov-dlya-Ukrainy-iz-poslaniya-Vladimira-Putina-112792.html),
the Ukrainian commentator says, are the following:
1.
Ukraine
is no longer at the center of Moscow’s attention; Syria is. For Ukrainians,
Zelfanov says, “this is a good thing.”
2.
But
“this does not mean that Russia has left us in peace. Instead, it means that
Ukraine has a brief “breathing space.”
3.
“Putin
is preparing Russians for the state of being a besieged fortress,” one in which
he pledges to defend the Russian people against the arbitrary actions of
officials.
4.
“Putin
in practical terms acknowledged that the struggle with corruption has collapsed
because he openly acknowledged that grey schemes have taken out of the budget
hundreds of billions of rubles.”
5.
Putin
“acknowledged that low prices for oil are a long-term trend” and that Russians
will have to tighten their belts.
Overall, Zelfanov says, Putin’s speech was
a defensive one, an implicit recognition that the conflicts he has gotten
Russia involved in require more resources than Russia has. That makes the next
two years truly fateful ones for Russia in the first instance but also, he
concludes, for Ukraine.
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