Paul
Goble
Staunton, December 6 – Moscow faces
a Hobson’s choice in dealing with Turkey: If it ultimately backs down, it will
lose face at home and abroad; but if it doesn’t, it will likely suffer
something far worse -- a defeat of the kind Russia suffered at the hands of
Japan in 1905 and one that had profound domestic consequences as well,
according to Vladimir Pastukhov.
In an article in today’s “Novaya
gazeta” entitled “Don’t Give Matches to Pyromaniacs,” the St. Antony’s College
analyst says that the next steps in the Russian-Turkish conflict are unclear.
They could lead to a local military conflict like the Balkan wars of the 19th
century, or a much larger war like in the 20th (novayagazeta.ru/politics/71047.html).
But “theoretically,” he continues,
there are two obvious scenarios for a way out of the current crisis: “a peace
‘behind clenched teeth,’” and a war “according to the principle, “’a tooth for
a tooth.’” Some in Russia would like “a new edition” of the Russian-Turkish
wars, “but the main thing is that this one not become a replay of the
Russo-Japanese one.”
Thus, Russia has again to “choose
between “a bad” and “a very bad” scenario. The first, “a peace ‘behind clenched
teeth,’” would mean that Russia could “lose face” but not necessarily its
political system or territorial integrity.
This would take place over time, and both Russia and Turkey would draw
down their hostile rhetoric just as Moscow has now done with Ukraine.
Then Ankara and Moscow could talk to
one another and reach agreements, involving “mutual concessions.” Turkey could
give way on economic issues, and “Russia could informally promise to reduce the
intensity of bombing in regions of Syria bordering Turkey,” Pastukhov suggests.
Many and especially Europeans would
like this outcome.
In the second scenario, “a war based
on the principle of ‘a tooth for a tooth,’” Russia would “save face” but it
would become involved in a war “far from its borders.” Some Russian officials apparently want a symmetrical
response – involving the downing of a Turkish plane – but it is unclear whether
than would end the conflict or exacerbate it.
It is “completely impossible to
predict how Erdogan would respond,” and thus if it takes that step, “Moscow
would be playing ‘Russian roulette.’” Turkey could respond to such a strike in
an asymmetrical way. That is because “the countries are divided not so much by
the ambitions of their leaders as by their interests which is much more
serious.”
The former can be moderated, but the
latter are harder to restrict, Pastukhov says. “For Turkey, Syria is a Ukraine
of local significance. Latakia is for it the same thing as ‘Novorossiya,’ but
Asad is for the Turkish president much worse than Poroshenko is for Putin.”
Like Putin, “Erdogan fears
revolution, but not an ‘orange’ one but a ‘green’ one. In order to survive, he
must be involved in the export of counter-revolution,” just as Putin feels
compelled to do. “Therefore, Erdogan
simply cannot allow himself to close his eyes two the Russian presence in this
zone.”
But the Kremlin isn’t able to ignore
Syria either because it has been acting in foreign affairs over the last four
years in order to prevent a new round of domestic challenges by redressing what
it sees as its losses in the “great game” of international affairs after the
fall of the Berlin Wall.
Thus, Pastukhov says, “both
countries are constrained by their pasts and are not free in their maneuvers.”
“The Russians intentionally bombed the Turkmens in order to guarantee the
security of the Asad regime, and the Turks intentionally brought down the plane
in order to guarantee their borders against Russian interference in the
conflict.”
Having taken up the cause of the
defense of the Middle Eastern Shiites, Russia “is conducting itself just as it
did 150 years ago when it fulfilled the mission of defending the Balkan Slavs.
Then this led to a series of Russian-Turkish wars which on the whole ended
positively for Russia.”
“The memory of those wars gives rise
in society certain illusions and expectations,” the St. Antony’s scholar
continues. “However a new Russian-Turkish war may turn out to be like the
Russo-Japanese one and become a serious test not only for the Russian army but
also for the social and political system of Russia.”
If the Turks “go for broke,” then
“the Russian military base in Syria threatens to be transformed into the Port
Arthur of the 21st century” because “the local military superiority
in Turkey is so great that the Russian expeditionary corps (including its naval
group) is in fact condemned.”
At the same time, a large-scale
Russian attack on Turkey, given that Turkey is a member of NATO and that there
are nuclear weapons on its territory, makes that “extremely improbable.” And
“in this situation Russia would have to live with the shame of military
defeat,” something that has a greater impact on public consciousness than
victory.
Consequently, “the escalation of the
military conflict with Turkey would have a strong revolutionary impact on
Russian society, and thus the political circle would be closed: the figiht from
revolution would be ended by a revolutionary flight.”
Thus a peaceful settlement is in
everyone’s interests, but the problem is that so far no political wisdom has
been shown on either side. Instead,
matches are now in the hands of pyromaniacs, and the world can only hope that
the instinct for self-preservation has not deserted them completely.
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