Paul
Goble
Staunton, December 2 – Both to keep
his domestic opposition off balance and to take advantages in changes at the
top of Western countries, Vladimir Putin may soon launch a charm offensive,
using what some call a “putting lipstick on a pig” strategy in which he will
make small cosmetic adjustments that promise more but do so to avoid making any
major changes.
In a commentary for Radio Liberty,
Russian journalist Oleg Kashin says that it is rumored that in the Kremlin, there
is a safe in which there is an envelope containing the regime’s last “trump
card” to be used when things appear so bad that there is no other obvious way
out. On that envelope is written “in large red letters, ‘Liberalization’” (svoboda.org/a/28149761.html).
Inside
that envelope, he says, there is “a plan,” one “precise, long and clever” so
that when it begins to be implemented “not everyone will immediately take note”
of what is actually going on and may even be fooled by it. Kashin says that a
senior official who helped prepare this plan has shared with him some of its
features.
Among
its features, he says, are the following: the dismissal of the notorious
culture minister and the disbanding of the Military History Society “for lack
of funds,” the dispatch of Putin’s biker buddy back to his biker base, a sudden
decision not to introduce Orthodox culture lessons into the schools, and the
imprisonment of someone for having killed Boris Nemtsov.
Other
steps include: allowing the movie Mathilda to be widely shown, a new television
program to which opposition figures will be invited, a softening of limits on
foreign adoptions, dropping charges against Aleksey Ulyukayev, and Putin during
a visit to the Butovka polygon saying that he is against the full rehabilitation
of Stalin.
Such
a strategy he suggests “will not immediately but very quickly change the
atmosphere in society.” There will be fewer alarmist commentaries and more
predictions of further liberalization. And one sign of this will be that each
such act by the Kremlin will be presented as “a signal” of Putin’s intentions.
The
presidential elections will pass quietly whenever Putin decides to hold them,
and many in the West will decide that now is the time to cooperate with the
Kremlin leader because he has turned the corner and will only do more good
things if the West will only show some support.
But
that will only demonstrate, Kashin continues, that once again both have been
deceived because “the main secret” of the Putin regime is its ability “to
change everything while changing nothing.” That happened under the presidency
of Dmitry Medvedev “and after Bolotnoye and after Crimea and certainly will be
realized once again.”
“To
say ‘the worse the better’ is considered unseemly, but the reverse, ‘the better
the worse’ in fact adequately describes Russia’s prospects which risk consisting
of a cosmetic liberalization with the preservation of the most awful elements
of the state.” “Insurance” against this consists of the most repellant people
around Putin and the coming to their senses of others.
The
latter are the more reliable, of course, especially if they quickly recognize
that this charm offensive is “entirely a deception and that it is directed at
the strengthening of the powers that be” rather than anything else. In that,
Kashin says, is its true essence: “it is not liberalization but rather a
provocation.”
Eliminating
biker buddies or obscurantist culture ministers won’t fundamentally change the
system. Instead, such steps will take the pressure off the regime to change
significantly, he concludes, ending with the warning: “fear liberalization” when
it is clearly being carried out on behave of “honest, in the sense of open,
reaction and authoritarianism.”
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