Paul
Goble
Staunton, January 2 – Moscow’s “extraordinarily
cynical policy” toward the regions and republics of the Russian Federation,
Natalya Zubarevich says, involves reducing help to most federal subjects,
taking money from the richer to help Moscow meet its budget deficit, and
transferring funds where “the political risks” of not helping appear greatest.
But what the Kremlin is not
offering, the director of regional programs at Moscow’s Independent Institute
for Social Policy argues, is something an increasing number of regions seek but
that Moscow won’t give: in the absence of money, they want greater flexibility
and freedom of action (vedomosti.ru/opinion/articles/2016/12/29/671648-deneg-net).
And that sets the stage not only for
greater conflicts between the center and the regions but also for stagnation
rather than growth in ever more parts of the country, something that the
leaders in Moscow do not yet appear to appreciate or display any willingness to
take steps to address.
There has been some good economic news
over the last year, Zubarevich says. Agriculture has shown real growth, and the
collapse of industry has slowed or stopped, although in processing it has
continued. But despite the efforts of the regime to suggest otherwise, there is
far more bad news than good.
Real incomes of the population,
consumption and investment have all continued to fall, trends that mean that “the
main victims of the crisis are the population of Russia and its future,” the
economist says. The regions which are now responsible for most social spending
have been cutting back on social spending, something that may leave Russia
without a future.
Thirty-nine of Russia’s federal
subjects ran a budget deficit in the first nine months of last year, and when
the results come in for the year as a whole, Zubarevich says, that number will
be much higher given that the regions have to go into debt to pay their
obligations to their state employees. In some places, this has already reached
crisis proportions.
And Moscow is making their situation
worse: During the first three quarters of 2016, Moscow cut transfer payments by
eight percent compared to the year ago, and 69 of the federal subjects received
less than they had in 2015. Even those identified as “geopolitical priorities”
saw cuts: central assistance to Sevastopol fell by 50 percent and to occupied
Crime by seven.
There were a few that remained “in
favor,” the economist continues. Kaliningrad saw its transfer payments rise by
3.4 times, Ingushetia by 31 percent, and Chukotka by 25 percent. And Chechnya after Ramzan Kadyrov protested
against any cuts at all saw federal subsidies fall by only one percent.
Many regional leaders are angry but few
protested because “such are the rules of the game” in Putin’s Russia, she
says. However, there is increasing
awareness in the regions that no one in Moscow cares how things are going in
this or that region; those at the center are worried only about covering the
federal deficit – and they are quite prepared to take more from the regions
where they can.
The regions are struggling to adapt to
“the worsening economic conditions and the reduction of federal assistance,”
and they vary widely as to the strategies they have adopted, Zubarevich says.
As a result, “federalism in Russia” has been reduced to the wide variety of
means they have come up with to adapt to Moscow’s will.
The city of Moscow, for example, has
shifted money from social needs to making the city more attractive, a strategy
that inevitably will lead to a further degradation of “human capital” in the
city. Others, like Mordvinia, which is an extreme case, have kept spending up,
hoping against hope that Moscow will come to their rescue before everything
collapses.
This “quasi-federalism in the
spending policies of the regions is helping them to survive,” Zubarevich says; “but
it is not stimulating development.” What it is doing is stimulating new questions
form the leaders of the regions and republics: “If there is no money,” they are
asking, “perhaps they can be given freedom of action?”
And in political terms that question
takes the following form: could the power vertical Putin has invested so much
in creating nonetheless be softened so that the regions could live up to their responsibilities
to the population? Up to now, “the
answer of the federal authorities is clear” and it is a firm “no.”
All must march in the direction
Moscow orders, and the wealthier regions must share. That may work for a time, Zubarevich says;
but as things get worse in 2017, it is quite likely that it will become obvious
to all that it is not only soldiers who are tired of drill; the regions and
republics of Russia are tired as well.
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