Paul
Goble
Staunton, February 2 – Some
commentators are suggesting Vladimir Putin launched his latest round of aggression
in Ukraine because he has gotten a green light from Donald Trump. Others are opining that Putin doesn’t really
want an accord and is demonstrating his power to do what he likes.
And still a third group, egged on by
Moscow, has concluded that Ukraine is to blame and has launched a military
campaign on its own territory against Russian forces as a way of torpedoing any
chance for a broader agreement between Putin and Trump, one in which they fear
the West would sell out Ukraine.
But such analyses miss a point that
has been repeatedly demonstrated over the past three years and misunderstand
Putin’s psychology and at least his perception of what the psychology of the
new American president is about such conflicts in the world and how they can
best be solved.
And they fail to take seriously the
all too real possibility that Putin’s aggression is designed to bring Trump to
the table for a deal on Ukraine and a deal on a wide range of other subjects as
well, a possibility that Putin’s own spokesmen have shown is precisely what is
on the Kremlin leader’s mind.
As “Business Ukraine” reports, Putin
launched the latest attacks in Ukraine within hours of his conversation with
Trump, sparking conspiracy theories among some and reminding others that
Western leaders have always rushed to talk with Moscow whenever there has been
an upsurge in violence in Ukraine, hopeful for a settlement even though Russia
says it isn’t involved (facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=10154069829020764&id=318925220763&substory_index=0)
That pattern reflects the recrudescence
of a Congress of Vienna mentality in Moscow. Such thinking holds that great
powers like Russia and the US should sort things out concerning smaller
countries over the heads of and without the participation of the latter. That
noxious idea was advanced again this week by the notorious Andrannik Migranyan (nationalinterest.org/feature/what-russia-expects-the-trump-administration-19269).
Unfortunately such thinking is not
confined to Moscow. Indeed, many Western leaders have adopted the same position
either out of “realism” or because they have allowed themselves to fall into a
trap set by the Russian side. And now Putin clearly thinks that he has in Trump
someone who will go even further in pursuit of “a big deal.”
Any doubts that this is exactly what
Putin is hoping for were put to rest by his press spokesman Dmitry Peshkov who
said the following: “The situation in Ukraine is causing
extreme concern. The Ukraine settlement has not been discussed during a [phone]
conversation between Putin and Trump, but the need for an early settlement of
the Ukrainian crisis was highlighted."
And
he continued: "As for the current aggravation on the contact line, I think
this is another reason for the early restoration of dialogue and cooperation
between Russia and U.S., including in order to "solve the Ukrainian issue,"
an obvious indication that Moscow wants and expects – Migranyan even used that
latter word – a grand bargain.
That
it must not happen, that Moscow must not be rewarded for its aggression, should
be obvious from the sad history of appeasement of Hitler in the 1930s. But in order that Putin’s plans be blocked so
that he won’t simply attack yet another country later in order to maintain his
standing at home and boost it abroad, it is important to understand just what
he is doing and why.
Fortunately, there is a growing
appreciation of this reality in Ukraine. See, for example, the brilliant
article by Halya Coynash today which argues that the “Avdiivka Offensive [is]
Aimed at Kremlin ‘Dialogue’ with Trump & Undermining Minsk Agreement” (khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1485989554).
But it is critical that this understanding
spread to the West and especially now to Washington because Washington not Kyiv
is Putin’s real target in his war in Ukraine.
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