Paul
Goble
Staunton, May 8 – “Russia has
entered a period of prolonged crisis,” one that is likely to involve more and
larger protests, Valery Solovey says.
The Kremlin will likely respond with the only method it knows, force.
But now, the Moscow analyst says, it can no longer count on the unquestioned
loyalty and obedience of the police.
That is not to say that the police
will go over to the protesters but rather that they will be unwilling to employ
the harsh measures Vladiimir Putin and others may demand from them. Those taking part in the demonstrations will
see this; and that will change the ways in which they will act in the future (fedpress.ru/interview/1783972).
Such a shift is just one of the
reasons, the MGIMO professor says, why it is difficult to predict how the
crisis will develop and when or even if Russia will be able to escape from it.
Another reason why it is difficult
to predict the future, he suggests, is that the coming protests after a lull
this summer are most likely to have “not a political but a social character and
also to be connected with local agendas in various regions and cities.” That is
because “in Russia, every city and region is unhappy in its own way.”
But one thing is clear: the rise in
protest activity is not being driven by the election calendar even though it is
occurring at the same time, something that “creates an extremely unfavorable
backdrop for the elections.”
The Kremlin and the powers that be
more generally have falsely concluded tha the March 26 demonstrations were a
highwater mark. That is a misconception, Solovey argues. And “when [the powers
that be] come into contact with a new, higher and more powerful wave of
protests, [they] will turn to all those mans which they have at their disposal
and are accustomed to use.”
“Besides police and administrative
pressure,” he says, these will include also “the organization of
moral-psychological terror and psychological pressure via the mass media,” the
analyst continues. That is all the more
likely because the authorities can no longer count on the unqualified obedience
of the police to crack down.
The police are experiencing the same
problems in their lives that other Russians outside the elite are. If the
Kremlin forgets this and tries to use the police in ways the police don’t want
to be used, Solovey says, Russia will enter into “a qualitatively new political
situation,” one in which “the powers will have lost a very important support.”
And that could easily mean, Solovey says,
that “the situation will gradually get out of control.” That is all the more
likely, he continues, because the Kremlin does not have an adequate
understanding of what is happening as it prefers to take what it would like to
be the case to be so.
In an obvious sense, Solovey says, this is
“nothing new.” It was the case in late
Soviet times as well, something that should give Putin and his entourage pause,
no matter how high his ratings now are.
No comments:
Post a Comment