Overall, the ministry says, the countrywide fertility rate should rise from 1.62 now to 1.65 in 2020 on its way to 1.7 in 2024, all figures well below replacement levels. But even that boost will come from places at least some in Moscow will be less than thrilled by: Tuva with a projected rate of 3.4, Chechnya with 2.92, the Altair 2.9, and Buryatia, 2.28.
All these unlike predominantly ethnic Russian regions where the figures are below 1.6 are non-Russian and non-Orthodox.
A major driver of these differences, the paper says, is a radical difference in age structure. Predominantly ethnic Russian regions are far older on average, something that means there are fewer women in the prime child-bearing age cohorts than is the case in the much younger over all populations of these non-Russian regions.
Given that demographic reality, the ethnic Russian regions are likely to experience a continuing decline in population while non-Russian republics in many cases are likely to continue to grow in size absolutely and relatively.