Moscow Returning to Soviet Concept of Mass Mobilization Army, Golts Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 1 – New rules giving Russian draft agencies the power to medical deferments two times a year and imposing higher fines on those who do not show up when called reflect a much broader and more serious change at the defense ministry, Aleksandr Golts says -- the return of Soviet conceptions of mass mobilization.

            At present, the independent military commentator says, some 30 percent of the draft-age cohort are deferred because of health. Vladimir Putin has regularly told young people this isn’t a problem because the army is increasingly staffed by professionals. But that isn’t the case, Golts says (openmedia.io/exclusive/zachem-vlasti-uzhestochayut-pravila-prizyva-v-armiyu/).

           

The defense ministry’s new initiatives, all of which are certain to cause chaos in the draft process and open more opportunities for corruption, reflect that fact. If contract or professional soldiers were really displacing draftees, there would be no need for the military to pursue as any young men as it is currently trying to do.

            It is true that the draft numbers have declined in recent years, but officials give various figures for the number of new professional soldiers. Not only can’t they agree on any one figure, but even the highest is significantly less than the one the defense ministry has set for 2019, 425,000. Indeed, the military is having difficulty holding the professionals.

            There are two reasons for this shift back to a focus on draftees, Golts continues. First of all, there are ever fewer young men from whom the military can draft. Until 2030, he says, the number of men reaching age 18 will not exceed 650,000. More than half of those are students, and the rest aren’t numerous enough to fill the new units Putin has called for.

            “Demography also has an impact on why the number of professionals isn’t growing.” Their ranks come almost exclusively from those who have passed through draft service. And so when there are fewer draftees available, there are almost certain to be fewer professionals as well.

            And second, the Russian military is planning for a dramatic expansion as the country heads into a new Cold War. For commanders, that means setting up large numbers of units staffed mostly by officers that can be expanded if war approaches by drawing on those who have had military training, that is, on former draftees who have served.

            That represents a return to “the Soviet conception of the mass mobilization army. This is when 80 percent of the units are not fully staffed,” Golts says.  But for that to work, the country needs “the so-called ‘mobilized reserve,’” which is to consist of those who have had military training when they were drafted.

            Consequently, the military commentator says, despite all the talk about moves to a professional military, Moscow is returning to the draft-based conception of the Soviet one, an arrangement certain to be unpopular with many young people and their parents and that may not be possible at all given the country’s demographic collapse.