Pandemic Contributing to Greatest Rise in Russian Mortality Rates in Recent Decades

Paul Goble

            Staunton, August 10 – The pandemic has pushed up overall mortality rates in Russia by three percent over last year, the greatest year-on-year increase in recent decades and one that not only is likely to continue for several years as waves of the pandemic occur but also cast a shadow on the future by reducing the number of women in prime childbearing cohorts.

            The final rate of increase in mortality this year may be even higher than that, as much as eight percent, depending on the introduction of a vaccine and the development of herd mortality; but that data won’t be available until early in 2021 at the earliest (ng.ru/economics/2020-08-10/1_7933_quarantine.html).

            But even if the rate rises only by three percent, that in and of itself will have a negative impact on the Russian economy and require the attraction of more immigrants from Central Asia and the Caucasus, a development that the Kremlin welcomes but that many Russians are very much opposed to.

            The Russian government’s pandemic staff reported that there were 5 118 new cases of infection over the last 24 hours, bringing the cumulative total to 892,654 and 70 deaths, pushing that figure over 15,000 to 15,001 (t.me/COVID2019_official/1247).

            Russian officials have said that they will register the first vaccine against the coronavirus tomorrow, but experts and competing companies have called for a delay because they point out that not all the necessary tests have been completed to determine the safety of the medication (regnum.ru/news/3032845.html and regnum.ru/news/3033217.html).

            Other medical experts cautioned against expecting miracles from the introduction of the Russian vaccine (regnum.ru/news/3032320.html and regnum.ru/news/3032336.html). It will certainly help; but unless other measures are taken as well, it won’t end the pandemic, Pavel Shumikhin, an Altay doctor and deputy says (regnum.ru/news/3032288.html).

            Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin said his city has conducted more tests than any other major city in the world and twice as many as New York (regnum.ru/news/3032888.html). Other officials reported that the greatest level of natural immunity in the Russian Federation was in Tatarstan, Tula Oblast and St. Petersburg (tass.ru/obschestvo/9163653).

            Russian epidemiologists report that the coefficient of spread of the virus has remained below 0.99 for the last several weeks, a figure that suggests the number of infections will slowly decline (regnum.ru/news/3032574.html). The figures vary by region and so too does the pattern  of opening and re-closing of public spaces (regnum.ru/news/society/3028625.html).

            Meanwhile, in other pandemic-related developments from Russia today,

·         Chukotka has seen a rise in the number of infections and introduced new mask requirements (regnum.ru/news/3032546.html).

·         Health officials are warning that those who use hookah pipes may be at greater risk of contracting the virus (regnum.ru/news/3032640.html  and regnum.ru/news/3032731.html).

·         And journalists report that while Moscow has dispatched medical equipment and supplies to more than 30 countries during the pandemic, it has sent medical specialists to only three – Italy, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan (stanradar.com/news/full/40784-rossija-otpravila-vrachej-i-virusologov-tolko-v-tri-strany-pochemu.html).