Third Wave of Turkmen Protests Emerging, Ponomaryev Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, November 1 – Turkmenistan is far and away the most repressive of the former Soviet republics; and as a result, any who try to protest within its borders and the relatives of those who may protest abroad are often subject to draconian punishments and threats. This abroad has limited but not blocked the emergence of protests by Turkmens.

            Vitaly Ponomaryev, who heads the Central Asia program and the Memorial Human Rights Center in Moscow, says there have been three waves. The first two were suppressed quickly and brutally, but the third, which involves Turkmens both at home and abroad, is gaining strength (fergana.agency/articles/121220/).

            Turkmen protests abroad have attracted some attention, but those within the country have largely passed beneath the Russian and English language media radar screen. There is no independent media in Turkmenistan, the only foreign broadcaster to the country is Radio Liberty’s Turkmen Service. And much of the news about the emerging wave is in Turkmen.

            Because of those limitations, “the new opposition wave” which arose inside Turkmenistan in the late spring and summer has not been “adequately describes in any analytic publication.” It mostly involves spontaneous expressions of popular anger at shortages and repressions and has not yet articulated a new constellation of leaders.

            These have been echoed by protests within the Turkmen diaspora in Turkey, North Cyprus, the United States and Russia. These émigré protests have become more regular and more radical with each passing month, Ponomaryev says. And they have sought to call attention to and link up with popular anger at home. In this, Turkmen Internet sites are key.

            According to the Memorial analyst, Ashgabat “in this situation is balancing its approach. If under Niyazov, the response would have been mass arrests, now, there are only a few criminal cases … and larger attempts to frighten people with administrative charges” including the relatives of those who speak out.

            But what is important to note is that while in the past, few Turkmen activists were willing to be identified under the own names out of fear of reprisals, now most do share their names and other identifying information, an indication that they simultaneously feel the situation is becoming desperate and that they have lost some of hteir fear.

            “The Turkmen protest movement is a completely new phenomenon,” Ponomaryev says. Fifteen years or more ago, there was nothing like this in Turkmenistan. It has arisen spontaneously but developed very dynamically.” People there are tired of the repressive Berdymukhamedov regime, and they are expressing their anger.

            They are losing their fear, but whether that will be enough to lead to the further organization and activization of what is really a proto-movement remains to be seen. It depends on the calculations of Ashgabat and the ability of Turkmens ready to take to the streets to attract the kind of international attention which will afford them some protection.