Paul Goble
Staunton, Oct. 31 – Moscow has long supported independence movements in Scotland and Northern Ireland as means to weaken Great Britain (scotsman.com/news/politics/russia-shows-interest-in-scottish-independence-debate-says-defence-minister-3430921 and foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/18/scotland-independence-russia-putin-ukraine-propaganda/).
But the Russians like almost everyone else has devoted less attention to the Welsh national movement, believing that it is a marginal phenomenon with few prospects. Now, however, as the movement itself is taking off, Moscow is focusing on the possibility of an independent Wales as well.
What appears to have prompted this change was the formation by the regional Welsh authorities a few weeks ago of a high-powered commission that will consider the possible relationships between Wales and London, including the option of independence (tamilguardian.com/content/welsh-independence-be-considered-new-commission).
In a commentary for the Russian Strategic Culture Foundation, Moscow analyst Svyatoslav Knazyev says that the possibility that Wales will achieve that end is small but that if things are going to happen they will do so in the near future because Brussels may be less supportive of Welsh independence with the passing of time (fondsk.ru/news/2021/10/31/esche-odna-treschina-v-soedinennom-korolevstve-54798.html).
If the EU backs away from its backing of the Welsh who favor remaining within that community, then London will likely have a free hand, Knyazev says. But in the coming months, Welsh nationalism is likely to skyrocket; and Moscow will have the same interest in supporting it that it has in backing the independence of Scotland and Northern Ireland.
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