Paul Goble
Staunton, May 17 – When people are confident that their leaders know what they are doing, no one around them feels the need to speak about that. But once people begin to doubt that those in charge in fact do know “what they are doing,” then those around them feel compelled to claim exactly that.
That is the real meaning of Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov’s recent statement that Putin “knows what he is doing,” Vadim Denisenko, the director of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future (gordonua.com/blogs/vadim-denisenko/process-razvala-rossii-zapushchen-samimi-rossiyanami-no-my-k-sozhaleniyu-ne-mozhem-spokoyno-sidet-na-beregu-reki-i-zhdat-trup-vraga-1609405.html).
In the short term, Denisenko says, such statements may lead even more Russians to rally around Putin because the Kremlin leader’s destruction of alternatives and repression against any who seek them make that a logical policy. But over the longer term, these words suggest that the Putin regime is heading toward its end.
If the population has to be reassured that those in charge do know what they are doing, that means not only that ever more people are beginning to think otherwise but also that they are searching for alternatives. Eventually some will appear; and if Russians conclude that they are a better alternative than the current leader, he and his system will collapse.
This is a strictly internal dynamic within the Russian system, the Ukrainian politician and analyst says; but it is something that Russia’s neighbors and the world can’t afford to ignore because if Russia changes, their situation will change as well.
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