Paul Goble
Staunton, Nov. 5 – Vladimir Putin very publicly said that he didn’t have to cancel his order for partial mobilization even as he declared that he was ending it, but sources in both the government and business tell the Verstka news agency that now he can restart it at will and won’t have to issue a new mobilization order when he does.
According to them, the most likely time for such a move will come after the completion of the delayed fall draft which began on November 1 and will last throughout this month, the news agency says its sources say. And because no new order will be required, there are likely to be fewer protests (verstka.media/vtoraya-volna-mobilizacii-kogda/).
There are signs that these fears are all too real. Not only are officials planning for such a move but the efforts to “correct the mistakes” of the first round of mobilization strongly suggest that the powers that be want to be in a position to carry out a new round more effectively than they did the first.
The military commissariats have been directed not to slacken their efforts and there is evidence that at least some of them are continuing to collect information on those living in their districts who would be subject to some future mobilization. One official says that he thinks a new round of mobilization will happen after the New Year.
Saying that the mobilization has ended but not issuing an order gives the powers two things they want, analysts say. On the one hand, it calms the population for a time even though thoughtful people know that without a cancellation order the mobilization hasn’t ended whatever the Kremlin says.
And on the other, by not giving such an order, the Kremlin can resume mobilization whenever and in however large numbers it wants – and in the colder months when protests and even flight from the country are more difficult.
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