Russia’s Neighbors Now Debating Whether They’re Better Off with a Strong Russia or a Weakened One Bent on Revenge

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Nov. 5 – Given the defeats Russian forces have suffered in Ukraine and increasingly frequent suggestions that the Russian Federation may collapse, analysts in some of Russia’s neighbors are now debating an issue that has long roiled people in the West: will they be better off with a strong Russia or a weakened one bent on revenge?

            Almost no one in these countries wants a Russia so strong that it will be able to successfully reconquer them, but the political commentariat in at least some of them at least is divided between those who say that a strong Russia might be dangerous but a significantly weakened one might be an even greater threat.

            That is because, these analysts suggest, a strong Russia would not feel the need to occupy others but could focus on promoting its interests in other ways while a weakened one might decide that the only way to present itself as strong and to win legitimacy for its leaders is to engage in military campaigns like the one it has launched in Ukraine.

            An example of such discussions is provided by Yuliya Kistkina of the QMonitor portal in Kazakhstan. She spoke with two experts, Zamir Karazhanov, a Kazakh political scientist, and Maksim Kramarenko, head of the Kazakhstan Institute of Eurasian Politics, who consider in some detail this issue (qmonitor.kz/politics/4533). 

            Karazhanov says that either a victory or a loss by Russia in Ukraine could pose a threat to Kazakhstan. If Russia loses and is seen to lose, it may fragment and/or lash out. If it “wins,” that will only be a short-term development because Russia will incur serious costs and losses as it tries to absorb Ukraine and may also decide that its “victory” there could lead to others.

            Kramarenko on the other hand sees the disintegration of Russia as unlikely but posing potentially serious consequences for Kazakhstan either because instability could bleed over its borders or because a new central state might see a foreign war as useful to it. Thus, both a weak Russia and a strong one represent threats.

            What Kazakhstan needs is a stable Russia that focuses first and foremost on its own domestic development. Whether the war in Ukraine will lead to that, however, remains very much an open question.