If Living Standards in Russia Rose, Fertility Rates would Likely Fall, Krupnov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 7 – Few are prepared to say openly that they are against increasing the standard of living of the Russian people, demographer Yury Krupnov says; but many quietly recognize that if living standards were to go up, the fertility rate – that is the number of children per woman per lifetime – almost certainly would fall.

            Surveys have repeatedly shown that those who are better off want fewer children than those who are poorer, the head of the Moscow Institute of Demography says, pointing to a 2017 Rosstat report that found that women who rated themselves very poor wanted on average 2.6 children while those who said they were very well situated wanted only 2.1.

            Figures for men parallel those for women, he continues. He then suggests this puts Russia in a bind especially since its population has not reproduced itself fully since the mid-1960s and that this year, the fertility rate has fallen to under 1.5, compared to that of 2.1 plus needed to keep the population stable (nakanune.ru/articles/119991/).

            The implications of Krupnov’s observation are that the rate would have fallen even further had the standard of living of most Russians not declined this psat year and that any effort to boost incomes in the future would have the unintended consequence of sending the fertility rate down still further.

            Such conclusions, which appear logically necessary, are completely at odds with the declared policy of the Russian government although perhaps not its real intentions and with the expressed views of most Moscow commentators writing on demographic and social issues in recent years.