Leaving Russia Acceptable ‘New Normal’ for Educated Russians Opposed to the War, Borusyak Says

 Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 13 – Lyubov Borusyak, a researcher at Moscow's Free University, says that Vladimir Putin’s declaration of partial mobilization has had the effect of normalizing decisions to emigrate.  Before that, most Russians opposed to the war left impulsively; now, even those who have not view emigration as a reasonable option they may choose in the future.

            In an article for the Holod news agency, she describes the results of the three investigations she has conducted so far this year among both those who have left because of the war and those who oppose the war but have for one reason or another chosen to remain in Russia (holod.media/2022/12/13/pochemu-mi-ne-yezhaem/).

            In the first of these pieces of research (freemoscowuniversity.pubpub.org/pub/p-3-10-borusjak/release/1?readingCollection=54fbd417), Borusyak found that the majority of those who left in the first months of the war had never thought about emigrating before and left impulsively, without the kind of planning that had marked earlier emigrations from Russia.

            In the second, conducted immediately thereafter, she focused on those who have chosen not to leave (freemoscowuniversity.pubpub.org/pub/p-3-11-borusjak/release/1?readingCollection=54fbd417). She found that these people felt that by remaining they could do “much useful for Russia” and so believed that leaving was a mistake.

            But in the third, conducted after the September 21 mobilization declaration, the situation changed. Many more decided to leave; but even among those who remained, emigration came to be viewed as a rational choice and as a result, Borusyak suggests, ever more Russians who oppose the war are now thinking about leaving.

            Ever more of those who remain now say they know people who have left and therefore view departure as something normal rather than exceptional, the researcher says. Indeed, leaving has become so much “the new norm” that even those who have remained up to now are thinking about doing so. That is a remarkable change, the researcher continues.

            Those who do stay are animated by the same feelings that led others to remain earlier, but even they, Borusyak’s research suggests, now view leaving as something they would certainly consider, especially if the regime moves to mobilize more people or threatens to close the borders, an attitude that cannot fail to have an impact on Kremlin decision making.