Non-Russians Overrepresented in Russian Army Not Only Because of Poverty but Also Because of Actions of Local Officials, Baktemir Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 9 – Many people have been outraged that non-Russians form a disproportionally large share of Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine and suffering disproportionally more combat losses and have been inclined to blame this on Moscow, but Todar Baktemir, a journalist who has worked with Nogai, Mari and Kalmyk nations, begs to differ.

            He says he isn’t inclined to blame Moscow but rather sees what is happening as reflecting two other factors. On the one hand, as many have noted, the high levels of poverty among many non-Russian groups compared to Russians predisposes many of the former to view military service as a way out of their situation (posle.media/regionalizm-eto-vospriyatie-mira-i-prostranstva-vokrug-sebya/).

            But on the other, local officials often acting on their own select non-Russians disproportionately for the draft either to avoid offending local Russians, to make themselves look good in Moscow’s eyes or for some other reason. The result is something that looks to everyone like a centralized policy, but that is “unlikely” to be the case.

            Baktemir makes this point in the course of a larger argument about the organization of the Russian state, the ways in which concern for one’s local community can grow into regionalism and, when blocked, into separatism, and how Putin’s war in Ukraine has accelerated such a trend throughout the country.

            He argues that the Russian state as currently constituted remains “an imperial construction” and that just changing the top leader will hardly be enough to end that. Indeed, the activist continues, “without destroying this statehood, it will be impossible to achieve complete freedom and autonomy” for any of the peoples within its current borders.

            According to him, many Russians in the regions are encouraged by the state to think badly of themselves as rural and backward and to think that only Moscow is worth following or moving to. But many even in the most unexpected places are changing; and today “a regionalist is someone who has managed to overcome this disparaging attitude” by Moscow and the broader Russian community.

            Regionalism is an entirely natural development reflecting the concern of people for those around them and pride in what their areas are about. But when efforts to promote local interests and values are blocked as they are in Russia, regionalism in many cases grow into separatism “when you realize that it is impossible to satisfy [regionalist] demands in any other way than separatism.”

            For many people in Russia, Baktemir says, “the start of the war in Ukraine became a separatist trigger because people realized that the center isn’t going to change and that no improvement there is in sight.” That doesn’t mean there will be a mass rising; instead, people and officials in the regions and republics will seize the situation when the center weakens, something that is now increasingly likely.