Russian Bombing Campaign has Not Sparked Upsurge in Emigration from Ukraine, Libanova Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 10 – Kyiv demographer Ella Libanova says that approximately 1.5 million Ukrainians have left their country since Putin began his expanded military aggression against it on February 24, but his recent bombing campaign against cities and energy producing centers has not sparked any upsurge in emigration abroad, although it has led some to leave urban areas.

            The director of the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for Demography and Social Research says that she expects fewer than the 80 plus percent who say they will return will in fact do so but more than the 33 percent that is normal in such cases will return (nv.ua/ukraine/events/skolko-ukraincev-ostanetsya-posle-pobedy-posledstviya-dlya-ukrainy-ekspert-poslednie-novosti-50289318.html).

            The longer the war goes on, the fewer will return because most of those who have gone abroad are women with children who will increasingly adapt to their new place of residence. That will cost Ukraine a portion of the next generation and mean that by the end of this decade the country’s population will fall to between 30 and 35 million.

            Libanova says many are fleeing not only because of fears of being swept up by the violence but because of the severe economic difficulties Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created, and she urges Western governments to provide more assistance to the Ukrainian population and not just to its military.