Paul Goble
Staunton, Dec. 11 – Ukraine’s successful attack on Russian strategic bomber bases in Saratov and Ryazan oblasts by highlighting the weakness of Russian anti-aircraft defenses is forcing Moscow to consider revising its military doctrine and threaten the first use of nuclear weapons, Sergey Ishchenko says.
The Russian defense ministry is playing down the December 5 strikes, saying they inflicted only “insignificant” damage, the Moscow security analyst says; but other, like Konstantin Sivkov, a prominent commentator on the Russian military, disagrees (svpressa.ru/war21/article/355064/).
He argues that what the attacks were designed to do was to test Russia’s air defense capabilities; and their success showed that there are serious shortcomings in that sector, shortcomings that Moscow must take seriously not only in its war with Ukraine but in terms of its broader geopolitical conflict with the West.
If Ukraine with its limited capacity can attack Russian bases 1000 kilometers deep within the country, Sivkov says, then Western countries can do the same and with greater effect. As a result, Moscow has now choice but to warn the West about the possibility it will launch a nuclear strike preemptively before its bases can be attacked.
That is what Putin warned about last week -- windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/12/putin-rejects-doctrine-of-mutually.html – and the reasons for his words, Sivkov and Ishchenko suggest, are the weaknesses of Russian air defense, weaknesses that Ukrainian forces have highlighted for all the world to see.
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