Paul Goble
Staunton, Dec. 8 – When Putin met Kazakhstan President Kasym-Jomart Tokayev ten days ago, the Kremlin leader proposed that Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan form a gas alliance under the terms of which Russia would export gas to the two and then they could use it or export it further.
The Kazakhstan authorities have reacted coolly to the plan, but Tashkent has rejected it in the strongest terms, with Energy Minister Zhurabek Mirzamakhmudov saying that “we would not gain anything from the Kremlin proposal. To the contrary, we would lose everything” (rusmonitor.com/gazovyj-soyuz-nikakogo-interesa-putin-poluchil-pinok-pod-zad-ot-liderov- kazahstana-i-uzbekistana.html).
“If we do import gas from another country,” the minister continued, “we will cooperate only on the basis of a commercial contract. We will never make political concessions in exchange for gas.” He said Tashkent sees no reason t do so especially as it doesn’t border the Russian Federation.
Other Uzbek commentators have repeated this position. Abdulla Abdukadyrov, a Tashkent economist, echoes Mirzamukhmudov. He said that “Russia wants to strengthen its positions with regard to our strategic resources,” but “we will not gain anything from the Kremlin’s proposal.”
Since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, relations between Moscow and Tashkent have cooled significantly. Recently, for example, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev refused to receive visiting Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, an action that would have been an unthinkable case of lese majeste anytime earlier.
With regard to the gas deal, the Kazakhstan government has said only that it is “studying” the matter. But most Kazakhs oppose the measure, and now that Uzbekistan has turned thumbs down, Putin’s latest diplomatic initiative is likely to fall flat, another sign of Moscow’s declining clout in Central Asia because of the war in Ukraine.
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