Anti-Western Patriotic Consensus Breaking Down from Within, Makarkin Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Jan. 1—Most observers have focused on the clash between the Kremlin which has done everything possible to promote an anti-Western patriotic consensus and those few Russians remaining who are not part of that consensus, according to Moscow political analyst Aleksey Makarkin.

            But the real story of recent months has been the appearance of dissent not against this consensus but of dissent within it, with various factions adopting different positions on how best to implement it, he continues. Those divisions are likely to become the seedbed for the re-emergence of politics in Russia (rosbalt.ru/posts/2022/12/31/1981511.html).

            Within the patriot consensus, Makarkin says, a real debate has emerged over what to do with those who fled Russia to avoid military service. “Political rationality suggests that dissatisfied people abroad are less dangerous for the authorities than are those who remain within the country … but there is an emotional desire to punish those who have broken the consensus.”

            Two camps have formed, with one wanting draconian punishments and the other behaving in a more rational manner. That shouldn’t surprise anyone at a time when a decision is yet be taken. “This is exactly how the return of politics happens – not in some academic seminar about alternatives but rather in talk about what level of brutality should be applied.

            Another sign that politics is returning not against the consensus but within it are the changing positions various public figures are filling. Dmitry Medvedev, long the archetypical systemic liberal, “now stresses his radical patriotism. Russian imperial nationalists admire Ramzan Kadyrov and Yevgeny Prigozhin is now a businessman who can attack a governor.”

            Such moves may not seem like much, but they are undoubtedly harbingers of a new politics in Russia, one in which the predictability of the past is rapidly being replaced by the a renewed as old alliances and interest groups break down and new ones form. This trend must be carefully watched, Makarkin suggests.