Excess Deaths in Russia Up by Almost Eight Percent Last Year over Expectations, in Part Reflecting Combat Losses, 'To Be Precise' Portal Says

 Paul Goble

    Staunton, Mar. 13 -- The Russian government has reported that mortality rates in Russia rose 3.3 percent from 2023 to 2024, with deaths rising from 1.76 million to 1.82 million (fedstat.ru/indicator/33556), but the To Be Precise portal suggests that a better measure of the trend is between deaths expected on the basis of the stable 2013-2019 period and 2024.

    If that comparison is made, the portal says, Russia suffered 130,000 more deaths in 2024 than demographic models had projected, an increase of 7.8 percent from 2023. Many of these "excess" deaths may be combat losses in Putin's war in Ukraine, although the available data are insufficient to confirm that (t.me/tochno_st/448). 

    Death data arrayed by age and gender have not yet been released, but data for regions have. They show that five federal subjects last year had "excess mortality, 30 percent of more above projections -- Tyva, the Altai, the Nenets AD, the Yamalo-Nenets AD, and Ingushetia. Deaths in North Ossetia, Leningrad Oblast, Kaluga Oblast Moscow and Adygeya were below expectations.