Paul
Goble
Staunton, December 7 – Many assume
that Donald Trump was portrayed in the Russian media as Russia’s friend until
last summer when it became clear that he would not be willing or at least able
to deliver any improvement in Russian-American relations; but that view is
incorrect, according to two scholars at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics.
Instead, Anastasiya Kazun and Anton
Kazun say the Moscow media was largely neutral or hostile to Trump before the
election, treated him as a friend of Russia for only the first three months
after his election, and now have returned to an almost uniformly hostile
evaluation of the American president.
In a new study using content and
agenda-setting analysis, entitled “A Friend Who Was Supposed to Lose: How
Donald Trump was Portrayed in the Russian Media,” the two say that the Moscow
media have treated the American president very differently over the course of
three periods (publications.hse.ru/preprints/211786222
and iq.hse.ru/news/212732033.html).
“Before the
election,” Kazun and Kazun write, “the tone of articles about Trump in the
Russian media was more neutral or negative than positive;” and he was discussed
mostly as the unpredictable opponent of the candidate, Hillary Clinton, Moscow
expected to win. But after Trump won, “the situation changed,” with Trump
becoming “Russia’s friend.’”
“But this positive news about Trump
predominated in the Russian media for only three months,” the two say. “In
February 2017, negative articles [about him] were more numerous than positive
ones” – and by June, “it was already practically impossible to find positive
publications about the new American president.”
Public opinion, the scholars say,
tracked along with what the media outlets were saying. “When Trump won,” Russians and the Russian
media experienced what can be called “the honeymoon effect,” a brief rise in
the popularity of a politician after an election, with many Russians assuming
that relations between Moscow and Washington would now improve.
But the new US
president rapidly lost his positive image in the media and in the population,
they write, but not because of sanctions as some think given that Russians
accepted the Kremlin’s message that Western sanctions were either having a
positive impact on Russia or no impact at all.
The most probable cause of this
shift is that public opinion followed “the metamorphosis of Trump” offered by
the media and that shift in turn “reflected the position of the authorities.”
That is the case even though the state doesn’t control all media, but it
controls enough that even the more independent parts follow its lead in the way
many subjects are treated.
Initially, government outlets
suggested Trump could and would lift sanctions and improve relations, but when
he didn’t, the media had to come up with a different explanation of that and of
him, Kazun and Kazun say. Had Clinton won as Moscow expected, explaining the
continuation of sanctions would have been easy, but with Trump, it was a
problem.
“It is possible,” the two
researchers say, “that the elites themselves for a certain time believed in the
possibility of positive changes … but when these hopes did not prove out, the
new [US] president quickly lost the media image of ‘the friend’ of Russia” and
as the media changed so too did the attitudes of the population as a whole.
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