Paul
Goble
Staunton, April 6 – Russian siloviki
have placed under arrest most of the leading opposition figures in Ingushetia
and have now introduced sufficient forces into that North Caucasus republic to
garrison and patrol all the major cities and many of the most important roads (novayagazeta.ru/articles/2019/04/04/80097-vzryvoopasnye-sovpadeniya).
But the opposition maintains
steadfast, with one continuing his hunger strike, with the republic ombudsman challenging
the way in which the authorities are detaining people, and with Ingush across
Europe holding demonstrations in support of the opposition and repeating its
demand that Yunus-Bek Yevkurov must be fired and the border accord with
Chechnya annulled.
(For details on all these
developments, see kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/326282/ kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/333956/
and capost.media/news/society/v-evrope-proshli-mitingi-v-podderzhku-oppozitsionerov-iz-ingushetii/.)
There are also other indications that
the situation is deteriorating toward violence even if Moscow and its agents in
place appear to be in total control. On
the one hand, one of the largest teips in Ingushetia, a powerful force, warned
Yevkurov that he and his brothers would be held personally responsible if
things went bad (graniru.org/Politics/Russia/Regions/m.275853.html).
And perhaps most important, Yevkurov’s
own bodyguard resigned to protest his former boss’s policies, an indication that
the republic head and his regime has internal divisions despite the support it
has from Moscow and the Russian force structures (fortanga.org/2019/04/ohrannik-evkurova-uvolilsya-iz-solidarnosti-s-narodom/).
Yekurov and Moscow clearly believe,
Anton Chablin, a regional expert, says in a commentary for the Caucasus Post that they can “’force the
opposition to peace.’” But they may very well turn out to be wrong because “the
stronger the pressure of the authorities on civil society, the more difficult
it will be to start talks” – and only a dialogue can end this crisis without losses
(capost.media/special/sobytiya/ingushetiya_oppozitsiyu_prinuzhdayut_k_miru).
“Why have people in Ingushetia
forgotten this truth?” the commentator asks rhetorically. And why do the
authorities there think that acting as if everything is normal will work?
Yevkurov goes along with his business as if there were no protests and were no
soldiers in the streets. But it is obvious
to everyone that things are getting out of hand, Chablin says.
So far the mainstream
media’s silence of the developments in Ingushetia that both Yevkurov and Putin are
working to maintain has worked, the analyst suggests. But that will come to an
end this weekend and next. This Sunday, the Ingush diaspora will hold meetings
in Helsinki and Brussels; next Sunday, another is planned for Stockholm.
The protesters at these meetings
will have two demands; the end to repression in Ingushetia and the ouster of
Yevkurov. Soon it will be impossible to avoid having articles appear in Europe
and the Wests more generally pointing out the obvious: Yevkurov is trying to be
every bit as much “’the Caucasus dictator’” everyone thinks Ramzan Kadyrov is.
That may save him for a while, but
it will make him too toxic even for Putin to hold onto, especially if the Kremlin
leader won’t or can’t sending Chechnya’s Kadyrov packing.
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