Even Conservative Russians were Put Off by Putin’s Constitutional Vote, Skobov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 8 – “Having organized the anti-constitutional state coup, Putin has shot himself in the foot,” not only because analysis shows that he was not able to attract the share of approval he hoped for overall but also because his approach offended many conservative Russian voters who are his traditional base, Aleksandr Skobov says.

            Polls show, the Russian commentator continues, that their support for the obscurantist amendments on the insertion of God and the definition of the family into the constitution was higher than their support for the Putin package as a whole. That means that in their case, Putin acted as a brake rather than a driver (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=5F055364D0478).

            According to Skobov, “even part of the traditionalist and pro-authoritarian citizenry was shocked” by the way in which the vote was carried out and thus, there arose “certain stylistic and aesthetic differences with the regime.” Putin forgot that “one must not denigrate those who on the whole support you.”

            “The result,” he continues, was “a landslide decline in the authority of the powers.”  That appears to be behind rumored plans to hold elections to the Duma in December and presidential ones in March of next year. And together, this signals that the Putin regime plans to become even more authoritarian than it has been up to now.

            The Kremlin will move to get rid of the opposition extra-systemic totally and systemic mostly, although possibly Vladimir Zhirinovsky’s absurdly named LDPR will survive for a time. Some will simply be banned, others will be restricted to the point that they can’t operate, and many leaders will be threatened with arrest.

            There will be a broad crackdown on journalists and media outlets, with many of the former being arrested and many of the latter closed one way or another, Skobov continues. The only free media will based abroad and online and accessible only to those who know how to work around the regime’s blocking.

            And those who challenge the Kremlin line on ever more issues will be subject to arrest, detention and even prison, far more stringent punishments than they have suffered so far. And those who cooperate in any way with foreigners will find themselves charged with treason or espionage under ever more elastic definitions of those laws.

            This will represent the end of the “hybrid” regime Putin and his supporters have celebrated, but such authoritarian practices are the only way he can hope to win out in the upcoming elections, the Russian commentator says.  But like the referendum, they have a serious downside for Putin that he may not have considered fully.

            The vote in the referendum and Putin’s increasing reliance on force alone means that “the ruling elite no longer needs Putin.”  Up until now, the Kremlin leader “could always say to them: ‘the people hate you and only I have the charisma which defends you from the anger of the population.’”

            That was sufficient to keep most of the elite inline. But now “Putin no longer has this argument. His charisma has been annulled, and the neo-fascist system he is putting in place will be able to work for a certain without him by relying only on force.” The elites can see this and thus will be ever less willing to put up with what they may view as his “hare-brained schemes.”