‘Khabarovsk a Harbinger of What’s Ahead for Russia as a Whole,’ Golts Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 13 – While the Kremlin likely will be able to quell the Khabarovsk protests, Aleksandr Golts says, what is going on there “in fact is in miniature of what will take place in the country as a whole in the near future,” a development that means that once again, “the collapse of the empire is beginning at its borders.”

            In Yezhednevny zhurnal today, the independent security commentator argues that

Vladimir Putin appears increasingly isolated from reality and is no longer taking reality into account in his decisions. Otherwise, he would have known that removing Sergey Furgal as Khabarovsk governor would spark problems (ej.ru/?a=note&id=35174).

            But the Kremlin leader couldn’t restrain himself because Furgal had committed three crimes from his point of view: he had completely defeated United Russia in elections, his rating had risen about Putin’s own and “finally, the last drop,” Furgal’s region had delivered a not very high level of support on the constitutional amendment vote.

            No one in the region or in Moscow thinks that Furgal was arrested for the reasons the center has charged, his role in a murder committed 15 years. Instead, they see this as the smokescreen it is, Golts says, adding that “one of the obvious signs of the degradation of a state is when people consider the law enforcement organs punitive agencies.”

            And that growing sense of the situation across Russia has been compounded in Khabarovsk where the population really chose Furgal rather than simply ratifying a Kremlin appointed. 

            The Kremlin has “three levers” to control distant regions: televised propaganda, money transfers, and “crude police force.”  TV is becoming ever less capable of doing that job because one can’t, as Lincoln observed, fool all of the people all of the time. And the center is unwilling or even unable to send back enough money to the regions to keep them happy.

             That leaves “crude force.” But increasingly there are problems with it as well. In Khabarovsk, the police and Russian Guard remained neutral, something that may force Moscow to bring in forces from elsewhere if it wants to suppress the protesters who remain in the streets.  But there is another problem here as well.

            The current conflict was created “exclusively as a result of a stupidity committed by the Kremlin.” Other regions are currently quiet, “but in the event of a systemic crisis, the protests will involve not just Khabarovsky kray, and then even the Russian Guard, whose numbers are greater than the ground forces, may not be enough.”

            Consequently, even if as seems like Moscow can suppress the Khabarovsk risings, it will face more because “this is only the first warning bell. Ahead are the social consequences of the economic crisis,” and thus there may be an explosion “instead of the slow rotting” that many expected would be the pattern of the next few years.

            Three other developments underscore why what is happening in Khabarovsk is likely a bellwether. First, news outlets in regions far from that city are highlighting the fact that Furgal really worked to fight the oligarchs and improve conditions for ordinary people, not the message Moscow wants anyone to hear (capost.media/news/politika/the-arrested-sergey-furgal-really-struggled-with-the-luxury-in-the-bureaucratic-ranks/).

            Second, thanks to social media and the Internet generally, Russians everywhere do know what is taking place in the Russian Far East and see Moscow’s attempt to cover it up as laughable and an indication of how out of touch the center is (gordonua.com/blogs/elena-rykovceva/po-gosudarstvennomu-radio-zamalchivayut-i-skryvayut-situaciyu-v-habarovske-absolyutnaya-epoha-sssr-1509048.html and znak.com/2020-07-13/federalnye_kanaly_predpochli_ne_zametit_mitingi_v_podderzhku_arestovannogo_sergeya_furgala).

            And third, there was another development in the Russian Far East that may prove even more frightening: 300 workers at a construction company who’ve not been paid for three months sacked the company’s headquarters, an indication that some in that region may feel they have no choice but to turn to violence (graniru.org/Politics/Russia/activism/m.279491.html and rbc.ru/society/13/07/2020/5f0c55d49a79475f36cce982?from=from_main_12).