Paul
Goble
Staunton, September 7 – Recognizing
that Belarusians would be unlikely to vote for unification with Russia even if
Vladimir Putin sent in a wave of “polite, little green men,” Moscow has decided
to pursue the economic annexation of Belarus while allowing Minsk to keep the
appearance of political sovereignty,” Vladislav Inozemtsev says.
For that policy to work, the Russian
economist says, “Russia will try to significantly increase its positions in the
economy of Belarus while Lukashenka is still in office” and will use
institutions like German Gref’s Sberbank to carry out the raid given that the
Russian economy is increasingly state-owned and thus congruent with Belarus’ (snob.ru/entry/197479/).
Moscow might have pursued a very
different and Armenian-style approach in Belarus allowing Lukashenka to go had
it not been for the Belarusian leader’s lobbyists in Moscow in the form of
powerful economic groups which view Belarus’ largest enterprises as ripe for the
picking.
And the signal that this is what is
going on was given by Lukashenka himself who amidst all the turmoil in the streets
suddenly began talking about the economy as his prime concern: “Our main task,
our main problem, our main concern,” he declared last week, “is the economy,”
words directed less at the streets of Minsk than at the lobbyists in Moscow.
For this scheme to work, Moscow
needs Lukashenka to remain in power so that the financial arrangements can
continue to be made in the informal way that have characterized most ties
between the two countries. That doesn’t mean he will be kept forever but rather
than Moscow will work to ensure that he doesn’t leave until it establishes
economic control.
According to Inozemtsev, “the
Russian authorities are seeking to systematize their aspirations for those
Belarusian shares which could be more valuable in the case of the collapse of
his regime than the ballyhooed oil fields in Venezuela” where Moscow put in far
more money than it could hope to extract.
“Russia needs somehow to guarantee
its investments in Belarus, but independent private business cannot have a
great role in a country out of which local companies are fleeing.” Consequently,
in the best hybrid tradition, Moscow is using a bank with ties to the Kremlin
to secure the economic annexation of a country it can’t quite yet absorb
politically.
Those watching Belarusian
developments have seldom focused on the way in which Moscow has been using its
economic leverage in recent months, but Lukashenka’s words and the Kremlin’s actions
suggest that what a Russian bank does in Belarus may be among the very best
indicators of where Moscow is heading and when.
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