Moscow Urged to Reopen Military Airfield in Stepanakert – A Reasonable Move or Russian Mission Creep?

Paul Goble

            Staunton, November 30 – Moscow military analyst Stanislav Tarasov has urged that Moscow restore to full operational capacity the military airport at Stepanakert in order to supply the Russian peacekeeping contingent in the region and to be prepared for any contingencies including a deterioration of the security environment across the region, including in Iran.

            On the one hand, Tarasov’s argument seems reasonable given that supplying the Russian peacekeepers without such an airport will require flights into Azerbaijan proper and use of heavy trucks over roads that at present are both long and in poor repair (regnum.ru/news/polit/3128598.html).

But on the other, the Regnum analyst couches his arguments in terms of broader issues, not only involving the interest of Azerbaijan and Armenia in the unblocking of routes crossing the territory of each other but also concerns about American intervention in the area and new Iranian activity, arguments that suggest that this may be an example of mission creep.

According to the November 10 declaration, Russian peacekeepers are strictly limited in number and length of time in the region, but Tarasov’s comments raise concerns among those who fear that Moscow has no intention of limiting itself to the declaration’s provisions but will use its forces for broader purposes and over a much longer period.

If Moscow officials pick up or act on proposals like Tarasov’s, that is likely to become a source of new tensions in the region, involving not only Azerbaijan and Armenia but Iran and Turkey as well – and at least potentially involving any Western powers that may become involved there.

At present, Tarasov says, Moscow and Baku have agreed to Russia’s supplying its contingent via Azerbaijani airfields and then roads into the region. That is more secure than flights over Georgia given that Tbilisi, possibly under pressure from the United States, may at some point withdraw its approval of Russian overflights of its territory.

But the routing of Russian materiel through Azerbaijan is far from ideal, Tarasov continues, as the two roads the equipment could be carried on are long – 646 kilometers and 728 kilometers – and in bad repair. Baku won’t object to this arrangement because it benefits from the unblocking of the route between Azerbaijan proper and Nakhchivan.

Despite that, however, Iran and the West may become more active in the region, and consequently, Tarasov argues, Moscow would be well-advised to reopen the military field near Stepanakert so that it won’t have to depend on the approval of countries in the region and will be prepared for any contingency.

That sounds less like a recommendation based on current needs than the advocacy of an expanded role for the Russian peacekeepers in the region, one that will likely look to many involved as the kind of mission creep Moscow’s involvement in conflicts beyond its borders is notorious.