Tsikhanouskaya Aide Outlines Six Scenarios for Transition in Belarus

Paul Goble

            Staunton, December 4 – Yesterday, Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said she is ready to head a transitional government there. One of her senior advisors, Alyaksandr Dobrovolsky, has now outlined six possible scenarios for how that process could occur  (tsikhanouskaya.org/ru/events/news/a82e732df119ffc.html).

            The six, each of which has several variants as well, are as follows:

1.      New elections as a result of negotiations.

2.      New elections as a result of the position of president becoming vacant.

3.      A harshening of the regime’s approach, mass repressions, and the possible introduction of martial law.

4.      An attempt by Lukashenka to draw out the crisis by promising reforms in the future in the hopes that the protests will die out.

5.      The introduction into Belarus of Russian military and police personnel and structures.

6.      A nomenklatura or military coup, with Lukashenka ousted from power as a result.

Only the first and second of these promise stability because they would be the result of Lukashenka’s recognition that he has no future in the country. New elections would legitimize a new government as long as people believed they were free and fair. If people suspected otherwise, instability would continue.

The other scenarios, Dobrovolsky says, would generate continuing instability. The government would remain illegitimate, the regime would have to spend money it doesn’t have, and the economic crisis in the country would intensify. He adds that Tsikhanouskaya is now fleshing out more ideas for the first two.