Street Protests Alone Not Enough to Bring Down Entrenched Dictatorships, Konstantinov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, February 4 – The most important lessons to be drawn from the protests in Belarus, Khabarovsk and most recently in more than 100 Russian cities is that such demonstrations of popular anger by themselves are insufficient to bring down entrenched dictatorships which retain the levers of repression, Daniil Konstantinov says.

            The Russian opposition lawyer and rights activist behind the For Fair Elections movement says that no one should think that street protests, no matter how large and frequent, are going to be enough to bring down the dictatorships in either Belarus or Russia (rusmonitor.com/daniil-konstantinov-opyt-habarovskih-i-belorusskih-protestov-pokazal-nesostoyatelnost-mirnyh-protestah-v-usloviyah-uzhe-sformirovavshejsya-diktatury.html).

            It is “senseless” to think that Navalny’s efforts have changed this, he says. Instead, it has simply created a situation in which the powers that be will use the coercive resources at their disposal more widely not just against activist leaders but against anyone in the population who dares to support them and oppose the Kremlin.

            To be sure, the recent protests have eliminated any “half tones” from the Russian political system. Those have permitted some to take part in the regime’s “administered democracy.” And most of them won’t be able to do so in the future. If they try, they will become discredited in the eyes of society. But even that won’t be enough.

            Ahead of us there is what will be “a long political winter” in which there will be “’a cold civil war’” involving “the open conflict of the state and society” and involve ever more repressive measures by the former, Konstantinov argues. But in this new season, “traditional forms of peaceful protest aren’t going to be enough.

            To be sure, “permanent protests which will create a picture of the rejection of the regime by the population together with international pressure may create certain difficulties for the dictatorship.” But they will remain “insufficient to seriously influence the situation” however passionately many want that to happen.

            And that means, the activist says, that society or at least its “active part, the opposition” must seek new answers to “the large and bold question: what should they do next?” Coming up with an effective response won’t be easy; not coming up with one could be fatal to the future of Russia.