With New Naval and Air Exercises, Azerbaijan Highlights Its Growing Power on the Caspian – and Russia’s DeclineThere and across the Region

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Apr. 28 – Azerbaijan has announced a series of combined naval and air exercises on the Caspian, yet another development that highlights Baku’s growing power there, the decline in Moscow’s dominance over what many had viewed as a Russian lake, and new possibilities for the expansion of Turkish and Iranian influence there.

            Baku’s moves (casp-geo.ru/azerbajdzhanskaya-respublika-provela-seriyu-voennyh-uchenij-na-kaspii/ and mod.gov.az/ru/news/vms-i-mchs-provodyat-sovmestnye-takticheskie-ucheniya-volna-2024-51508.html) follow similar actions by Kazakhstan (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2024/03/kazakhstan-conducts-major-naval.html) and Iran (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2023/12/iran-launches-new-flagship-for-its.html).

            These actions highlight the declining role of Russia in the Caspian (jamestown.org/program/russias-caspian-flotilla-no-longer-only-force-that-matters-there/ and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/01/russia-not-keeping-up-with-naval-build.html) and open the way for Turkey to play an expanded role there (jamestown.org/program/turkey-planning-to-become-dominant-naval-player-in-the-caspian/).

            And that in turn, in the minds of some Moscow commentators, will only accelerate Russia’s loss of influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia even as the Kremlin tries to recover it via its war in Ukraine (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2024/04/while-kremlin-focuses-ukraine-rest-of.html).