Paul
Goble
Staunton, April 9 – Vladimir Putin’s
goal in Ukraine remains regime change in Kyiv, something he had hoped his
intervention in Crimea and Donbas would force the Ukrainians to do on their
own. But that hasn’t happened, and now, the Kremlin leader is likely to launch
a broader attack against Ukraine in the near future, according to Pavel
Felgengauer.
Putin has an even more compelling
reason to move forward, the Russian military analyst says. If he doesn’t, he
could face “very serious problems” at home. And “as a result, this could lead
to regime change” not in Kyiv but in Moscow itself (nv.ua/opinion/felgengauer/zachem-moskve-na-samom-dele-letnyaya-eskalaciya-v-donbasse--43072.html).
Consequently, while a move toward “a
stable frozen conflict” in the Donbas is “theoretically possible,” Felgengauer
argues, it is “improbable” because for “political, strategic, tactical and
economic reasons,” that would leave Ukraine in a state that is “absolutely
unacceptable for Russia.”
“Therefore,” he says, “military
pressure will continue,” and “Moscow will continue to attack as soon as it
completes all the necessary preparations.”
At the present time, “an intensive preparation for a summer campaign is
going on,” one that will involve first militias it can disown but then may
involve Russian units as well.
Thus, Felgengauer says, “the
probability of a summer campaign is very high.”
While an unstable truce continues in
the Donbas, “the propaganda campaign against the Ukrainian regime and the West
is only intensifying” in Russia itself, the military analyst says. Shifting the direction of that campaign,
which hasn’t happened, could “lead to the activation of a protest movement” in
Russia as the country enters a new electoral cycle.
Indeed, Felgengauer suggests, Putin
would face “very serious problems if he were to decide on a freezing of the conflict
in the Donbas. As a result, this could lead to regime change in Moscow.”
Consequently, he will try to inflict “tactical defeats” on the Ukrainian army
in the hope that will lead to political change in Kyiv and the federalization or
disintegration of Ukraine.
“In any case, according to the
Kremlin’s scenario,” the Russian military analyst says, “Ukraine must not get the
chance to develop independently or even more to build a democracy. This is
something Moscow does not need at all, and that is exactly the outcome to which
a frozen conflict could lead.”
Meanwhile, various
Ukrainian writers are pointing to the Russian order of battle already present
in eastern Ukraine or adjoining Russian regions as an indication that Putin may
move even sooner than that, possibly as early as this coming weekend (rusjev.net/2015/04/09/sluhi-o-nastuplenii-prorossiyskih-boevikov-na-pashu-vesma-obosnovanyi/).
And Polish President Bronisław Komorowski told the Verkhovna Rada that “it is
impossible not to see” that Russia has put military equipment and troops into
Ukraine as part of an invasion. “Only the blind do not see this,” he said (news.liga.net/news/politics/5489908-agressiyu_rf_v_ukraine_ne_vidyat_tolko_slepye_komorovskiy.htm).
Komorowski said that “in the east, Ukraine is defending not only its own
territorial integrity but also all of Europe from a return of the imperial
past. The world will be secure only when Ukraine will be secure.” And
consequently, “Europe must provide Ukraine with political economic and security
support.”
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