Paul Goble
Staunton,
April 4 – Leonid Reshetnikov, a retired SVR general, director of the Russian
Institute for Strategic Studies (RISI), and an advisor to Vladimir Putin, says
that there is no possibility that Novorossiya will be part of Ukraine ever
again because “the people of the south-east do not want to be Ukrainians.”
He also
rules out the likelihood that the territories of the Donetsk Peoples Republic
and Luhansk Peoples Republic, with their “millions of people,” could become
something like a Transdniestria, a partially recognized country within the
borders of another country recognized by most.
And thus
he suggests that the immediate future is more war and the longer term future is
the annexation of these areas and ultimately the rest of Ukraine and much of
the former Soviet space into a new Russian state that will combine “the best
features” of the pre-1917 Russian Empire and the USSR.
These are just some of the views that Reshetnikov offers
in the course of a wide-ranging interview he gave to Aleksandr Chuikov, a
journalist for “Argumenty Nedeli” (rgumenti.ru/toptheme/n481/394395).
Reshetnikov
says that his institute which began as a secret part of the SVR has long
specialized on “the analysis of available information on the far and near
abroad,” information “which is needed not only for intelligence but for the
structures which define the foreign policy of the country.”
“However
strange it may seem,” until very recently, “there were no such serious analytic
centers in the Presidential Administration of Russia,” the former SVR general
says. Instead, what the Kremlin had too many of were “’institutions’” which consisted
of “a director, a secretary, and the wife of the director” but without the
staff that could make them effective.
RISI is
different, he continues. It was created by Vladimir Putin, “and all government
assignments for its investigations are signed off by Sergey Ivanov, the head of
the Presidential Administration.”
When
RISI was set up as a separate institution in 2009, Reshetnikov says he thought
then that if Moscow would finance it the way Stratfor or RAND are financed, he
would be in a position to leave Western analytic centers in the dust because
“Russian analysts are the very strongest in the world.”
“I can
say this with confidence,” he adds, “on the basis of 33 years of analytic work
initially in the First Chief Directorate of the KGB of the USSR and then in the
SVR.”
Reshetnikov
says that his institute was one of two that has been working most intensively
on Ukraine. (The other is the Institute of CIS Countries.) “From the very
beginning of our activity, we wrote analytic reports about the growth of
anti-Russian attitudes in central Ukraine and the intensification of
pro-Russian ones in Crimea.”
He says
that RISI was not alarmist about this but rather urged that Moscow take steps
to use NGOs in both places to promote pro-Moscow feelings, something the
Russian embassy in Kyiv did not do as much as it should have and as Russian
embassies are now doing thanks to the intervention of President Putin.
The
probability that there will be more war in Ukraine in the coming months is
“very high,” Reshetnikov says, because the idea of the federalization of
Ukraine has been rejected by Kyiv which is operating under pressure from the
United States which wants a united Ukraine so that it can put cruise missiles
there to be directed at Russia.
That is so
important to Washington, the RISI director says, that “the US will fight for
the Donbas down to the last Ukrainian.”
When
Yanukovich was ousted by the Maidan, Moscow lost its “SOB” in Ukraine, even as
the US installed its “SOB,” he says. But both Russia and the US received
“compensation.” Russia got Crimea and
the resistance of Ukraine’s south-east, even though “the enemy also received an
enormous territory which was part of the Soviet Union and the Russian Empire.”
At the
same time, Reshetnikov says that it is “too early” for Moscow to go for broke
and attempt to seize all of Ukraine. That is because Putin understands that “in
Europe there are taking place certain processes which are hidden for
outsiders,” processes which “give hope that we will be able to defend our
interests by other methods and means.”
Putin
understands as many do not, Reshetnikov says, that the US has organized a plan
to dismember Russia – something he says is “not propagandistic but real” --
even as it keeps its dominance over Europe. Washington is acting in Central
Asia as well as Ukraine. Indeed, the US may strike first at Turkmenistan using
various proxies, as some in Moscow have suggested.
According
to Reshetnikov, Russian-American cooperation in the struggle with terrorism is
“a fiction,” because the US “creates, feeds, provides for and then gives
orders” to groups like ISIS for its own purposes. “Perhaps,” it will shoot
attack one group of terrorists but only to be in a position to better control
the others.
But all
these American actions, the RISI director says, are part of a general plan and
thus they must be countered as a whole rather than responded to piecemeal. That affects how Putin acts in Ukraine, even
if many do not recognize the reasons that he does one thing or another,
Reshetnikov adds.
According
to the RISI director, what is occurring in Ukraine is not a fight between
Ukrainians and Russians, “but a war of world systems. Some consider they are ‘all
Europe’ but others that they are Russia. For our country is not simply a territory;
it is a separate and enormous civilization which has brought to the attention
of the entire world its views on world organization.”
The next
year is going to be difficult for Russia, he continues, but “in the course of
the next five or six years, we will see” the restoration of “a Russian empire
as a model of eastern Slavic civilization. The Bolsheviks destroyed it,” but
they brought “a new civilization idea.” Now, Reshetnikov says, Russia is moving
toward “a good symbiosis” of its two predecessors.
The West
understands that and consequently, “an attack has begun” on Russia “from all
sides,” he says. That attack is being made by American presidents, but the real
power lies with “secret forces,” including “transnational financial
corporations” which want to define the new rules of the game.
But both
the attractiveness of what Russia is offering and the ugliness of what the West
is doing is leading to “an explosive growth of anti-American attitudes,” in
Hungary, Greece, Italy, Austria, France and so on. “If Russia holds out now,” he says, “then processes
will occur in Europe that will not be helpful to those now seeking world
domination.”
At the end of his interview,
Reshetnikov says that he is “extremely” opposed to the idea of uniting the SVR
and the KGB. Were that to happen, he argues, the number of sources of
information available to the president would be reduce to one, and thus he would
be subject to distortions that that one would almost inevitably introduce.
He says that when he was a captain
in the KGB in Soviet times, he was aware of “such manipulations with
information” by his employer.
Chuikov
appends a biographical sketch of Reshetnikov.
The RISI director was born in Potsdam in East Germany in 1947. He
graduated from the Kharkiv State University and did graduate work at the
University of Sofia in Bulgaria. From 1974 to 1976, he worked at the Moscow
Institute of the Economics of the World Socialist System.
Then,
from 1976 to 2009, when he became RISI director, Reshetnikov served in the
analytic sections of Soviet and then Russian foreign intelligence. His last
post was as chief of the SVR’s Information and Analysis Administration. In
addition to his native Russian, he speaks Serbian and Bulgarian and can
communicate in Greek.
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