Paul Goble
Staunton,
April 3 – Russian military spending, even as officially given by the finance
ministry, provides a remarkably accurate early warning indicator of Russian
intentions, Andrey Illarionov says, and a dramatic increase in spending since
January of this year thus suggests that Vladimir Putin is preparing for a
larger war in Ukraine and/or elsewhere.
Between the
time that Putin came to power up to January 2014, the Moscow economist and
commentator says, Moscow has spent on average 2.5 to 3.2 percent of GDP on the
military, with the figure tending to rise over time. During the first 13 years
of his rule, Illarionov says, spending in constant prices went up 2.6 times (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=551E192F7CF46).
But over
the 14 months – the period of Moscow’s intervention in Ukraine – Russian spending
on its military has not only gone up significantly as one would expect at a
time of military operations but has tracked in a way that provides insights on
Russian intentions for the future, the Moscow analyst says.
After Putin
made his final decision to intervene in Ukraine in February 2014, he says,
Moscow’s military expenditures “were increased by more than twice,” a figure
that suggested the Russian government intended not only to seize and occupy
Crimea but all of what it calls “Novorossiya.”
In February, March and April of last
year, Russian military spending amounted to 6.7 percent of GDP and 27.7 percent
of all budget expenditures.
At the end of April, the Kremlin
halted its most ambitious plans and reduced its monthly military spending for
the rest of 2014 by approximately a third compared to the first three months of
last year, reductions that were possible even though Moscow increased its
exercises near the Ukrainian border and supported military action within
Ukraine.
According to Illarionov,
official Russian government figures show that “the situation radically changed”
in the first two months of this year, the latest period for which figures are
available. Average monthly military spending increased 2.3 times, compared to
the May-Deceber 2014 period, 3.3. times compared to the last pre-war period, and 8.8 times compared
to 2000.
For those two months alone, he
says, military spending was more than 1.3 trillion rubles – that is, more than
20 billion US dollars – and it constituted 43.3. percent of the federal budget
and 12.7 percent of Russia’s admittedly diminished GDP.
Such a “sharp increase” in
military spending provides addition evidence that Putin is preparing for
military actions “on a far larger scale and much higher level of intensity than
even those which [the world] has seen over the course of the last 14 months.”
In short, Illarionov says, the Kremlin leader is preparing for a major war in
Ukraine and/or elsewhere.
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