Paul
Goble
Staunton, April 8 – In the course of the
last Russian census in 2010, an estimated 3.5 million residents of the Russian
Federation avoided taking part, a shortfall that reduced the value of the
enumeration and one Moscow hopes to avoid in the 2020 census by making
participation in the count mandatory and imposing fines on those who try to
avoid responding.
Rosstat, the Russian State Statistical
Committee, wants to make participation in the census obligatory – it is
currently at least nominally voluntary – and to impose serious fines on anyone
who fails to cooperate with census takers or provide the kinds of information
they seek, according to a report in today’s “Kommersant” (kommersant.ru/doc/2703849).
The
paper’s Darya Nikolayeva says that Rosstat submitted a proposal calling for
those changes and others to the government last week.
She
notes, apparently on the basis of the committee’s application, that in the 2010
census, one million people refused to cooperate and another 2.6 million “’avoided
contact with census takers.’” Moreover, 3.5 million refused to disclose their
level of education, four million refused to indicate their incomes, and 4.6
million did not answer where their incomes came from.
These
numbers, the paper reports, were more than double those in 2002, a trend that
has the effect of making each Russian census less reliable and useful than the
ones before it.
Rosstat
has also asked the government to centralize all statistical work in its hands
and provide it with the funds to do the work. At present, it competes with
other ministries that are involved in statistical work and has long suffered
from what it says is a shortage of money needed to do its job.
No
census in any country ever manages to count everyone even when as is often the
case, participation in the enumeration is mandatory and avoidance punishable by
fines or worse. But the Russian
shortfalls, combined with other problems of the census, including bureaucratic
interference to boost numbers and thus get more funds from Moscow, are
especially serious.
The
figures “Kommersant” reports suggest that at present, Russian
officials are estimating that they have missed almost three percent of the
population. Given that some regions likely have far higher “miss” rates than
others and that Rosstat may be understating the problem,that is yet another reason for skepticism about Russian census returns
in particular and Russian statistics in general.
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