Paul
Goble
Staunton, December 9 – The economic
crisis in Russia is feeding the growth of Islamist extremism in an indirect
way: young people from Kyrgyzstan who had been going to Russian cities as
gastarbeiters are now going to Syria to fight for ISIS; and there is a great
danger that when they return home, they will bring their new extremism with
them.
In an article in today’s “Nezavisimaya
gazeta,” that Moscow paper’s correspondent in Bishkek, Grigory Mikhaylov writes
that “the youth of Kyrgyzstan are exchanging Russia for Syria,” a trend that is
already worrisome in Syria now and likely to be in Kyrgyzstan and other Central
Asian countries in the near future (ng.ru/cis/2015-12-09/7_kirgizia.html).
Officially, “more
than 500 citizens of Kyrgyzstan are fighting in the Middle East,” but the
actual number is likely higher. In any case, Mikhaylov says, “the number of
participants is constantly growing and among the volunteers there are ever more
women and children. Those migrants returning from the Russian Federation also often
seek employment in other regions.”
Bishkek officials, increasingly
alarmed by this pattern, have adopted “a complex of measures,” but most of
those remain classified. Among those that have been reported in the media are
prophylactic measures among soldiers and militiamen, strengthening of the special
services, and the creation of a Center for the Study of the Religious
Situation.
But many are concerned, the “Nezavisimaya
gazeta” journalist says, by the fact that the authorities have not changed
their rhetoric, provided support for moderate Muslim leaders, or developed the
kind of expertise to identify extremism before it spreads. Instead, officials
continue to blame problems on forces like “illiterate imams.”
Kadyr Malikov, a theologian, says
that none of the civil or religious authorities have taken a clear position about
two Kyrgyz citizens whom the authorities have identified as ISIS recruits. “The
silence of the authorities shows,” he says, “that not one expert or theological
can be confident that his security will be guaranteed by the state.”
Moreover, Mikhaylov continues, “a number
of specialists [in Kyrgyzstan] are criticizing the leadership for a lack of
flexibility and an inclination to apply harsh methods to religious activists.
In the opinion of political analyst Parviz Mullodzhanov, ‘the authorities are
driving representatives of moderate religious organization and radicals into
one camp.”
And there, he says, “they are coming
together.” To the extent that is so –
and the experience of other post-Soviet states and others as well suggests that
it is – the fallout from the collapse of the gastarbeiter possibilities in
Russia for the rise of Islamist extremism in Central Asia are likely to be far
larger than anyone currently imagines.
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