Paul
Goble
Staunton, December 9 – Many people
now say that they do not believe the findings of pollsters that 86 percent of
Russians approve of Vladimir Putin, Denis Volkov says; but in fact, the figure
is correct – it has been replicated many times – although it does not mean what
either the Kremlin leader’s backers or his opponents think it means.
In an article in today’s “Vedomosti,”
the Levada Center sociologist says that most people who hear this number do not
put it in the context of the answers Russians give to a multitude of other questions
about the authorities and thus “they make mistaken conclusions that Russians
support any decisions of the authorities and are its enthusiastic supporters.”
Moreover, “instead of examining the
details and trying to make sense of the entire mass of contradictory data,”
they tend to dismiss the number as such and call into question “the honesty of
sociologists, the adequacy of sociological methods in Russian conditions or the
openness of respondents” (vedomosti.ru/opinion/articles/2015/12/09/620191-86-putina).
At the same time, Volkov continues,
such people tend to assume that the 10 percent of the population “which doesn’t
support Putin and speaks against the annexation of Crimea are “automatically
part of ‘the democratic minority.” That conclusion, the sociologist suggests,
is equally ill-advised.
He begins his discussion of the
issue by suggesting that while one cannot know in every case why Russians
answer the way they do, there is compelling evidence that the level of those
willing to respond has remained unchanged over the last 20 years and that most
Russians do not focus enough on politics to make the kind of calculations that
are routinely ascribed to them.
It is true that some people tell
pollsters what they think those in power want to hear, but “such behavior is
characteristic in the first instance for a narrow stratum of elites, for those
who are well informed about what is going on and use primarily quality
information from independent sources.” Under Russian conditions, “this is not
more than 10 percent” of the total.
“According
to our research,” Volkov says, “only a few percent of the population takes not
of the persecution of the opposition and pressure on NGOs. Only five percent
can say of themselves that they are well informed. The majority isn’t
interested in what is going on, doesn’t focus on politics and does not have
clear political preferences.”
Those
attitudes explain why popular support for Putin is so high. “Yes, a significant
segment of Russians considers that open criticism of the authorities may create
definite problems.” But it must be
remembered that “on many questions, the majority simply does not have its own
opinion.”
The
regime’s control of media matters, of course, because most Russians get their
news from three or four TV channels, but at least as important is that most
Russians are conditioned to the idea that there is only one candidate for any
job and that the opposition is not especially attractive.
And
that in turn means, Volkov continues, that “approval [in Russia] is not an
evaluation by the population of specific political decisions but a general acceptance
of the course which the authorities are following.” And that tends to hold even
among those who live in major cities and have access to alternative sources of
information.
Two
years ago, Putin’s rating was lower because of all the problems the country
faced, but “the annexation of Crimea became a turning point which allowed the
Kremlin to win the sympathy of even its most consistent critics and win the support
of the majority” because many felt that this marked “the rebirth of the greatness
of Russia lost after the disintegration of the USSR.”
“Consciously
exploiting the existing post-imperial complexes, the authorities obviously calculated
that the annexation of Crimea would strengthen support for the regime. But the
strength and prolongation of this effect most probably has turned out to be
unexpected even for them,” Volkov says.
The
Levada Center has been surveying Russians about Putin every month since August
1999, and it asks each time more than just about the public’s general attitude
toward him. As result, “we know that a
little less than 60 percent of the population trusts him as a politician and
that only about 55 percent are prepared to vote for him in presidential
elections.”
Russians
are divided about many things and even about Crimea, but despite that, “almost
90 percent assert that it isn’t necessary to return” the peninsula to Ukraine: ‘what’s
done is done,’ say people in focus groups.”
“It is interesting,” Volkov says, “that the 10
percent of those who oppose Putin and the annexation of Crimea are hardly ‘the democratic
minority,’ but in fact are a quite varied company consisting in part of the
audience of independent media, a small fraction of Muscovites and a significant
segment of Russians form the least well off portions of the population.”
Few
of them are supporters of liberal parties whose total backing now is “no more
than one or two percent.”
Putin’s
approval ratings have varied over the last 15 years. At four points, it
achieved a level of 84 to 89 percent: in 1999, 2003, 2007-2008, and 2014-2015.
Each of these was at a time of military action and opposition to the United
States. Thus, although Volkov does not put it this way, his high ratings at
those times reflect a kind of “rallying around the flag.”
Twice,
Volkov points out, Putin’s rating fell to 60 percent – in 2005 and 2011-2012,
largely as a result of economic difficulties.
In each case, the fall was accompanied by “massive all-Russian protests,
given that at those times “more than a third of the population” was
dissatisfied with the authorities.
In
a situation like this, “any incident can lead to a chain reaction and provoke
an open expression of dissatisfaction,” Volkov says. “However, the situation is
complicated by the fact that the opposition in the eyes of the population doesn’t
look attractive. Today, the authorities appeal to the simple citizen” and
present Putin as his or her best option.
The
current economic crisis has not led to the decline in approval many expected,
at least in part, Volkov suggests, because Putin was able to prevent panic by
suggesting that the crisis would last no more than two years and that Russians
need to be patient. Whether he will be able to maintain that if the crisis
continues longer is very much an open question.
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