Paul
Goble
Staunton, December 7 – Vladimir Putin
said last week that Russian firms will use ports in the Russian Federation
rather than those in the Baltic countries, but Russian businesses are against
such a shift at least now and thus Putin’s proposal is unlikely to be carried
out, according to Sergey Artyomenko, a specialist on regional development in
the post-Soviet space.
On the one hand, he tells the Regnum
news agency today, “one needs to consider that the largest Russian companies
are firmly ‘anchored’ in the Baltic ports having invested large amounts of
money in the capacity of the terminals there. And they do not intend to leave” (regnum.ru/news/economy/2029262.html).
And on the other, given tariff arrangements,
railroad charges and logistical considerations, Russian firms find it “as
before easier to work with the ‘hostile’ Balts than with Russia’s own’ customs
services and Russian Railways.” As a result, they want to continue to operate
as they have up to now, regardless of what Putin says.
Artyomenko gives details about the
investments of some of Russia’s largest companies in the Baltic ports and the
ways in which they have found it easier and more convenient to work with the
authorities in these three countries than they have with ports and carriers in
the Russian Federation.
Thus, there is no reason to think
that they wills top using the Baltic ports anytime soon, “despite all the
unfriendly declarations of the leaders of these countries toward Russia and
despite the desecration of the memory of fighters of the anti-Hitler coalition
and Russophobic declarations.” Business is business and it will continue.
The only kind of transit which might
shift in the next few years, he suggests, involves oil. New pipelines to
Russian ports would in fact be cheaper than the current shipping of oil via
train over Baltic rail lines. But the decision to make any shift will be about
price not politics, at least as far as Russian businesses are concerned.
But pipeline projects face at least
three problems: At present, Moscow can’t find the money for them. There are
environmental concerns all around. And there are even concerns that Belarus
might oppose another Russian pipeline across its territory, the Russian
economic analyst suggests.
This doesn’t mean that the amount of
Russian trade through Baltic ports will not fall – it already has especially in
Latvia -- but such declines are driven less by a desire to punish Estonia, Latvia
and Lithuania than by a general fall-off in Russian exports in the current
economic situation.
This is an example of a more general
problem: Putin is giving orders or making suggestions, and Russian firms and
even other parts of the Russian government are making choices not on the basis
of what the Kremlin leader says but in terms of what is in their own interests
or possibilities.
Today, there are two other news
items which highlight this trend. Russian firms are concerned that Western
investment that should have come to them will be welcomed by and go to
countries like Kazakhstan which are supposed to be close allies of the Kremlin (newskaz.ru/economy/20151207/10434211.html).
And despite Putin’s repeated
statements that the Northern Sea Route in Moscow’s to control, Deputy Prime
Minister Dmitry Rogozin has suggested that Beijing should become a co-developer
of this route, another case where economic realities are trumping political
desires (regnum.ru/news/economy/2029450.html).
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