Paul
Goble
Staunton, January 5 -- A Georgian
political analyst has warned that Vladimir Putin’s most likely Anschluss in the
coming year would involve the unification of South Ossetia (which Moscow
illegally seized from Georgia in 2008 but did not absorb at the time) with
North Ossetia (which is already part of Russia) and the inclusion of that new
entity in the Russian Federation.
In a comment to Azerbaijan’s Haqqin
news agency which ran yesterday under the title “A Threat to Georgia: The Two
Ossetias Unite and Become Part of Russia,” Vakhtang Maisaya says that “the
powers that be in Tskhinvali have thought up an absolutely new and more
sophisticated geopolitical provocation” (haqqin.az/news/89096).
The goal of renaming South Ossetia
Alania, he continues, is to bring it into closer correspondence with North
Ossetia which also uses that name and thus to make it easier to unite the two
and then absorb the Georgian portion into the Russian Federation, “a classic
case of irredentism” in this case directed at Georgia.
This process is likely to involve
three steps: a referendum on giving the head of South Ossetia additional
powers, a second one renaming that republic, and then a third about the
unification of the two under a common name, the Republic of Alaniya. It is
quite possible that the capital of the new entity will be in Tskhinvali,
Maisaya says.
And he concludes by suggesting that
this process will begin “already in this year” but only be completed in
2018. Under current geopolitical
circumstances, the Tbilisi scholar says, Georgia won’t be able to block any of
the changes that Moscow has in mind.
No comments:
Post a Comment