Paul
Goble
Staunton, April 24 – Experts at the
Kremlin’s Institute for Social Research say that the populist wave that is
sweeping the West will come to Russia only “after six or seven years,” allowing
Moscow to learn what how it should respond. But they add that Vladimir Putin
can use “populist technologies” in the upcoming presidential elections.
Not long ago, the Presidential
Administration created an Expert Institute for Social Research, and that body
has conducted a study of populist movements around the world, a copy of which
has landed in the hands of Moscow’s Gazeta newspaper and is discussed by its
journalist Andrey Vinokurov (gazeta.ru/politics/2017/04/23_a_10641071.shtml).
The report, its authors, including
Gleb Kuznetsov, say that the study was prepared in the first two months of this
year after Donald Trump won the US presidential election and Marin Le Pen
appeared set to do far better in the French presidential vote than many
expected. It does not include data about
Russia now but insists that the populist wave is coming to Russia soon.
That means, the report says, that
Moscow has the opportunity to study how populism works and how it can be
opposed or exploited before its leaders have to confront an analogous upsurge
in the next electoral cycle. And the authors say that the current wave is far
from being the first one.
Perhaps the report’s most important
argument is that “contemporary populism is politics for the distracted voter,”
a means, even a technology of helping him or her feel reconnected with decision
making by providing simple answers and attacking existing elites. Such voters
are numerous in many countries, including the Russian Federation.
The report also argues that it is
impossible to call the ideology of populism “leftist” or “rightist.” In some
countries, it takes one form; in others, the opposite. What ties it together is that it arises most
often during a time of crisis “when the middle class is losing its customary
benefits.”
Vinokurov also reports that the
study argues that “the enthusiasm of the populists for internet technologies in
large measure arises from the nature of such movements … because populism calls
for the participation of ordinary citizens in the taking of decisions. Such
present-day technologies give people a chance at ‘direct democracy.’”
Social media give people a sense of
horizontal and vertical connectedness, the report continues, but they also have
a powerfully centralizing effect: the followers of a charismatic leader get to
the point that the only source of news and views that they are prepared to
accept as true and valuable is the tweet or post of that leader.
Traditional politicians have not yet
figured out how best to respond. Criticizing the populists in normal ways
simply represents an effort to extinguish a fire with kerosene. Efforts to
marginalize the populists also backfire because they play into the mythology of
the movement and its leader themselves.
Sometimes borrowing ideas from the populists
works, the report says, but not always.
According to Vinokurov, “the authors
predict that the wave of populist technologists will reach Russia in six or
seven years. By that time it will be
possible to analyze both the mistakes of traditional parties and leaders in the
struggle with populists in other countries and also the methods which allow
leaders to take control of the wave and become first among the populists.”
Kuznetsov, one of the authors of the
report, says that Aleksey Navalny isn’t really a populist but rather a
traditional politician who is trying to use social media. A better Russian
example of populism, he suggests, is LDPR leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky. And he
argues that Putin may use populist technologies even in the upcoming race.
“This is the best means of
increasing participation,” he concludes.
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