Paul
Goble
Staunton, May 5 – Moscow
commentators have noticed what few in the West have: Ukrainian President Petro
Poroshenko’s decision to change the format of his country’s military operation against
pro-Moscow forces strengthens Kyiv’s legal position at home and abroad and
allows his government to escape from euphemisms and call things by their proper
names.
At the start of this month, in a
follow on to decisions made earlier, Poroshenko declared that the anti-terrorist
operation in the east was completed and would be succeeded by a military
operation of the unified forces of Ukraine against the Russian invasion (rbc.ru/politics/03/05/2018/5aeade659a794775466568f6).
This change in nomenclature doesn’t
mean that the conflict will necessarily intensify on the ground, but it does
mean, Russian observers say, that Kyiv’s legal position at home will be
regularized and strengthened and that Ukrainian officials can now speak more
openly about Russian aggression and the right of Ukraine to resist it.
The Ukrainian general staff had been
pushing for this change since the start of the year, arguing that it would
allow for the formation of a more clearly defined command structure in the
region and the systematic use of the Ukrainian army in the Donbass because it
would clarify some legal issues and promote effectiveness more generally.
The re-definition of the conflict is
fully in accord with the law on reintegration of the Donbass adopted in
January. The chief goal of that law is “the
liberation of the specific occupied territories and the restoration of the
territorial integrity of Ukraine.”
Russia is labelled “the aggressor” and the DNR, LNR, and Crimea called “temporarily
occupied territories.”
What
Poroshenko’s order does is resolve the problem of the use of the Ukrainian army
on the country’s own territory. Under Ukraine’s constitution, the army cannot
be used on the territory of the country except to repel an invasion and under
conditions of war. But since the Crimean Anschluss in 2014, Kyiv has not
declared a state of war or even martial law.
The
January law and now Poroshenko’s decree allows Kyiv to “’call things by their
proper names,’” supporters say. The latter means that the Ukrainian military is
involved in “a defensive war’” intended to “’free territories occupied by
Russia.’” Kyiv at the official level had
not been clear about that in the past.
Following
the Russian intervention, Kyiv responded on the basis of its 2003 law “On the
Struggle with Terrorism” which allowed the authorities to use force to protect
the population but gave primary responsibility for doing so to the country’s
security service rather than to the military.
In
June 2014, two months after the fighting in the Donbass began, the Verkhovna
Rada amended that law to give the military a larger role; but the amended
measure specified that the army could be used on Ukrainian territory only with the
explicit approval of the Ukrainian parliament.
Poroshenko’s
action, however, gives the military primary responsibility and puts a new staff
to coordinate its activity in the Donbass under his direct authority, thus
reducing the role of the parliament while elevating his own.
Moscow
has reacted angrily. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on May 3 told an Italian magazine
that “the main aspect of the Ukrainian conflict is that Russia is not
conducting a war with Ukraine and is not a participant in the conflict.” What Poroshenko’s action means is that now at
the official level, Kyiv disputes both of those notions.
According
to Ukrainian political analyst Vadim Karasev, this shift in Ukrainian policy is
intended to freeze the conflict rather than to exacerbate it. “By calling Russia the aggressor, the
Ukrainian side in fact is blocking the negotiating process,” something Kyiv has
an interest in doing given the upcoming presidential and parliamentary
elections.
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