Paul
Goble
Staunton, September 2 – Neither Moscow
nor Minsk is satisfied with the current arrangements between the two, Aleksandr
Zhelenin says; and Vladimir Putin’s appointment of Mikhail Babich as the Kremlin’s
man in Minsk suggests that Moscow wants to annex Belarus, a desire that has put
Alyaksandr Lukashenka on the defensive.
In a commentary entitled “Babich as the
Forerunner of an Anschluss,” the Rosbalt writer says that Putin wants an Anschluss
and has named Babich as his executor not only to win points at home but also to
put additional pressure on Ukraine and the West by moving Russian military
facilities toward NATO (rosbalt.ru/blogs/2018/08/31/1728913.html).
“De
jure,” Zhelenin says, “Belarus already for a long time has been part of a
single Union State with Russia.” But that state in fact “exists mainly on paper,”
although Moscow for its part has been signaling in recent months that it is
time, in the words for Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin to “fill it with new
content.”
The problem for Moscow is that Moscow
faces an obstacle to the realization of its plans. And that is Belarusian President
Alyaksandr Lukashenka, who as a result of his own intense efforts, has kept his
country independent. “That isn’t a very firm basis for genuine sovereignty, but
it is what it is …”
Relations between Moscow and Minsk have
deteriorated to the point that a month ago, Andrey Sudaltsev, a specialist on
Belarus at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics, said that “the cause of the
worsening of the health of the Belarusian leader was Putin.” And Belarusian analyst
Pavel Usov said Putin needs a cheap victory and Belarus is an obvious target,
especially if the first stage is the establishment of a Russian military base
there.
According to Usov, Putin has
leverage on Lukashenka because of the Kremlin leader’s knowledge about
Lukashenka’s involvement in the kidnapping and murder of Belarusian opposition
figures, something Minsk has tried to hide and that Moscow hitherto has not threatened
to expose.
“But Putin wouldn’t be Putin if he
acted only with a stick. For Lukashenka, [the Kremlin leader] naturally has a
significant carrot” as well,” Zhelenin says. One “carrot” might be a lifetime sinecure
for Lukashenka as president of the Council of the Union State.” But given Lukashenka’s ambitions, that isn’t
enough – and Putin may not be able to offer enough either.
An indication that Lukashenka is
under pressure and has no intention of backing down was his “pathetic
declaration” after his June meeting with Putin that “we are at the front and if
we do not hold out,” that would mean the end of Belarus or the unleashing of a
war “like the one in Ukraine.”
Lukashenka isn’t going to be
satisfied with the appearance of power in either Minsk or Moscow, and Putin isn’t
going to be willing to give him real power in Moscow. Consequently, the Belarusian
leader has to defend Belarus in order to defend his own power, the Rosbalt
commentator argues.
That explains why Putin has installed
Babich in Minsk, Zhelenin says. “According
to Usov, “Babich is not that type of diplomat who must resolve disputes and not
allow confrontations between the governments. He must provoke and create conditions
in which these conflicts will as before appear.”
“Besides his formal activity, Babich
will be involved in informal activities connected with the support of various
pro-Russian groups, the so-called representatives of ‘the Russian world’ in
Belarus,” the Belarusian analyst continues.
“In other words,” Zhelenin
concludes, “one can say that with the appointment of BAbich to the post of
Russian ambassador in Minsk, Moscow has moved to swallow up Belarus. What Lukashenka
can do to oppose this course, and whether he will seriously try to do so, is
still difficult to say.”
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