Paul Goble
Staunton,
February 2 – One of the moments when it became clear that the Soviet Union was
headed for the dustbin of history was when the leaders of the national
republics, often having won elections for their positions even when Soviet
President Mikhail Gorbachev had not, became more popular than the incumbent in
the Kremlin.
Something
similar has not yet happened in the Russian Federation. Vladimir Putin remains
more popular than the heads of the federal subjects in most polls, but the decline
in his standing means that he is no longer head and shoulders above them, something
that must be of concern in the Kremlin (club-rf.ru/news/52694).
However, it is
likely that this shift now does not mean what it did in 1989-1991. That is because,
as Kazan political analyst Ruslan Aysin points out, at present even more than
at the end of Soviet times, “all government institutions – courts, parliaments,
executive organs, fiscal services and political parties are rapidly degrading”
(business-gazeta.ru/article/411918).
The rating of the president is
falling rapidly, and consequently, his ability to moderate the struggles of
informal structures like clans which have assumed the role of formal institutions
in the past has been significantly reduced. Hence the arrests of the Arashukovs,
a measure of the center’s weakness rather than its strength.
This all means, Aysin says, that “the
uncontrolled scenario of the transfer of power is sharply increasing. The
systemic crisis is deepening, and soon we will be almost in the position of
Venezuela and Maduro.” Somewhat ominously, he adds, “the current political
construction [in Russia] is finally and completely worn out.”
The models of state and society that
were appropriate in the past no longer work now despite the assumptions of many,
the Kazan analyst says. “It is already past time to view things as they are.
Russia, of course, has ‘a special path,’ but in this case, that is clearly
insufficient” to ensure that it does not face disaster.
No comments:
Post a Comment