Paul
Goble
Staunton, May 28 – Since the oil
boom ended, Vladimir Putin has operated on the assumption that Russians will
put up with a low standard of living in order to see their country return to
the first ranks of world powers with other countries fearing it because of its
awesome military power and its willingness to use it against weaker neighbors.
But that bases for that assumption
are fraying given the economic problems Russians now face: Nearly half of them
have only enough money for food and clothing (newizv.ru/news/society/28-05-2019/tsifra-dnya-48-2-rossiyskih-semey-deneg-hvataet-tolko-na-edu-i-odezhdu),
more than 80 percent are having to economize (romir.ru/studies/rossiyane-vernulis-k-jestkoy-ekonomii),
and most are drinking just as much but turning to ever cheaper kinds (babr24.com/msk/?IDE=189304).
Moreover, and perhaps equally
important, ever more analysts are pointing out that while the consumer sector of
the Russian economy has always been smaller than in Western countries,
widespread poverty by lowering demand from it will make any recovery extremely
problematic (publizist.ru/blogs/112342/31276/-).
As a result, new surveys show that
Russians who five years ago defined being a superpower in terms of having superior
weapons now say that that status belongs only to countries which have well-off
populations, a situation that Putin’s Russia cannot now claim (wciom.ru/index.php?id=236&uid=9709
and politsovet.ru/62842-rossiyane-svyazyvayut-status-sverhderzhavy-ne-s-oruzhiem-a-s-blagosostoyaniem.html).
To put things bluntly, as does the
headline of a new Rosbalt commentary, Russians no longer want to be “proud” of
their country’s military power but “naked” as far as how they have to live at
home. Instead, they would like to see Moscow devote more attention to their
clothing than to its missiles (rosbalt.ru/russia/2019/05/28/1783665.html).
But as the commentators the news agency
survey suggest, this demand is not yet focused and organized and consequently
it is unlikely to have any immediate impact on Kremlin policy. Instead, the
regime is likely to continue on its current course, taking more money away from
the population and spending it on arms.
That will work until it doesn’t,
they say; and when it doesn’t, the entire arrangement could end with a popular
explosion, the Russian “bunt” that many talk so much about and that the country
has suffered from many times in the past, one that might change things for a
time but that would be unlikely to fundamentally alter the situation.
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