Russians Reject Putin’s Rule and Want Radical Changes in Foreign Policy and Domestic Arrangements, Belanovsky Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, May 1 – Sergey Belanovsky, who attracted attention for predicting the anti-government protests of 2011-2012, now says that participants in focus groups in Moscow, Yaroslavl, and Gus-Khrustalny show that Russians reject Vladimir Putin’s policies and rule, want an end to a militarist foreign policy and seek a parliamentary democracy.

            The sociologist says that he was “personally shocked” by what Russians in these focus groups said.  He hadn’t expect such radical shifts in opinion and “apparently processes are moving very quickly,” although he added that he wouldn’t risk making any predictions (activist.msk.ru/2019/04/sergey-belanovskiy-v-rossii-vnov-narastaet-trebovanie-radikalnoy-demokratii.html).

            His research, conducted in March, showed that “the speed of change in the consciousness of Russians in comparison with April 2018 is growing. The most obvious indication is the opinion of the overwhelming majority that the tough presidential power over almost the last 20 years has not justified itself.” 

            Moreover, Belanovsky continues, “in comparison with focus groups held in April and October 2018, the negative trend toward the powers in general and V. Putin personally have intensified.” Participants denounced growing social inequality, the increasingly hereditary nomenklatura and the ever more impoverished population.

            These attitudes would not be “so serious,” he says, “if society had an answer to the question ‘Where are we going and why should be put up with all these inconveniences?’ But there is no answer to this question among respondents nor in their opinion among those in power.”

            “In this,” the sociologist says, “consists the main problem and the main source of the crisis.”

            He continues: “the militarist policy abroad, which as recently as a year ago was approved by a significant share of respondents now is not approved by almost any of them.” Instead, they are “nearly unanimous” that “Russia needs a peace-loving foreign policy” so that sanctions can be lifted. Moreover, they say, given its nuclear arsenal, Russia doesn’t face any military threats.

            “Television propaganda is ceasing to have an impact,” Belanovsky says. Indeed, Russians are now suspicious about shows put on given that the regime adopts the most repressive laws while covering major sporting events.  Consequently, whenever one of those occurs, Russians worry about what the regime will do to them.

            According to Belanovsky, “respondents see as the main cause of such a development of events the taking of decisions by one man, the behind-the-scenes nature of their adoption, and the unanimous support of them by parliaments at all levels. As a result, they demand openness in the powers, discussion, and a public procedure of taking decisions and control over their execution.”

            A growing number say that “the political system of Russia must be radically restructured in the direction of democratization,” with “a majority now calling for a parliamentary republic because it is more open and there are real discussions in it,” the sociologist continues.

            Belanovsky ends by saying that “the Russian people is seeking a way out of its current situation, and these searches recall a sine curve: demand for democracy in the late USSR, then demand for ‘a firm hand’ after the riot of democracy in the 1990s, and now, on the brink of the 2020s, there again is a demand for radical democracy.”

            The sociologist appends to his comments a 5,000-word transcript of his focus group in Moscow, a document that fully supports all of his conclusions.